Russia uses natural resources to force its neighbors to capitulate to the whims of Moscow.

And they don't even pretend to be doing anything but, forcing neighbors to capitulate to their Soviet rebuilding efforts. 



Russia uses natural resources to force its neighbors to capitulate to the whims of Moscow.


Russia reiterated its ultimatum over natural gas supplies to Belarus on June 18, with Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov saying that Russia will cut off 85 percent of the natural gas it sends to Belarus if Minsk does not pay the $192 million it owes Russia in unpaid gas debts by June 21. Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko maintains that Belarus does not owe this money and that the two countries should resolve the dispute diplomatically.

Past cutoffs to Belarus and Ukraine have disrupted the gas flow to European countries farther down the supply route, but political issues could keep Germany and Poland from being affected this time, in the fairly likely event that Russia follows through with its threat.

Russia and Belarus have been locked for years in a tussle over a post-Soviet partnership in which Moscow has played the dominant role, while Minsk has sought to be equal to its neighbor. At first, Belarus signed a Union State political agreement in which Belarus was to remain tied to Russia similarly as to the Soviet era. But Russia refused to allow Belarus equal political rights. The reason being that the majority of Russians do not believe Belarusians are their ethnic equals.

Though Russia and Belarus have continually struggled in their hot and cold relationship, Minsk has never truly strayed far from Moscow. As of January 2010, the two along with Kazakhstan signed a Customs Union, in which the three countries would be integrated economically. For Belarus, this was the sure sign that it would not have to struggle under the high economic costs that Europe saw, especially in energy. But still Russia did not give Belarus a break — mainly because it didn’t have to.

In the past week, even Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko has come out and stated that his country should pay the subsidized prices for energy that Russians enjoy. But to Moscow, Belarus is not a part of Russia, just a weaker neighbor.

Lukashenko even offered strategic pieces of Belarus’s natural gas infrastructure to make up for the supply difference. But Russia is not interested because it already owns most of the strategic pieces it needs in that sector. There is one major piece that Russia is interested in picking up inside of Belarus. According to STRATFOR sources, Belarus is offering majority stakes in its refineries for a break in its natural gas and oil bills to Russia. Those refineries supply many Central European states like the Baltics, Germany and Poland — which Russia is eager to keep leverage on.

In previous negotiations, Russia has had to adhere to some of Belarus’s terms since it was still loyal to its former Soviet relationship. However, in the past six months, Russia has pulled neighboring Ukraine back into a pro-Russian stance. Ukraine carries 80 percent of Russia’s natural gas exports to Europe, whereas Belarus carries only 20 percent. Russia has already spoken to Kiev and its partners in Europe — like Germany and Poland — to ensure that supplies that transit Belarus will be rerouted through Ukraine should the cut-off continue.










Russia