Apparently, almost as many people have died from swine flu as have died in Iraq (2003) and Afghanistan (2001). Quite possibly the number is higher given the fact that data is so far behind on this issue and the government is not collecting the specifics in all cases!
It does not negate the seriousness of either, given my experience now with swine flu, but perspective is important and given what we are fighting ...
CDC now says 4,000 swine flu deaths in US
November 11, 2009
2:54 PST
AP
ATLANTA – Federal health officials now say that 4,000 or more Americans likely have died from swine flu — about four times the estimate they've been using.
The new, higher figure was first reported by The New York Times. It includes deaths caused by complications related to swine flu, including pneumonia and bacterial infections. Until now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had conservatively put the U.S. swine flu death count at more than 1,000. Officials said this week they're working on an even more accurate calculation.
The CDC says "many millions" of Americans have caught the pandemic flu virus since it first appeared in April.
JUST A GUESS -
There are nowhere near enough diagnostic tests to give to everyone with flu-like symptoms to see if they really have swine flu, and autopsies have shown that some people who have died had H1N1 and no one even knew it.
So the death figures will be based on models, calculated by looking intensively at small groups of people, gathering data on overall reports of sickness and death, and reconciling the two.
"Each case of influenza is not reported either with seasonal flu or in a pandemic [like H1N1] and therefore the subsequent deaths are not always immediately traceable to a specific cause of death," said Dr. Frank James, a health officer in San Juan County, Wash., and a clinical associate professor at the University of Washington.
swine flu
Showing posts with label flu. Show all posts
Showing posts with label flu. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Thursday, November 5, 2009
When is the Flu not Swine Flu
Answer: when you are not diagnosed as having swine flu.
I am not being funny.
Imagine the following:
Person A: They complain of not feeling well. This of course always happens after 8pm - never at 9 am when the doctor's office is open - and you check their temperature and they have one, say 100.7. You give them tylenol. In 4 hours or 6, you give them some motrin. They complain their throat hurts. The temperature jumps to 102, and despite all efforts, even with medication it does not go below 101. Say the next day you take Person A to the doctor. You ask the doctor about swine flu. They say no, it is a respiratory or bronchial infection. If it was swine flu the person would be severely lethargic, unable to walk or sit upright. You go out and buy the medication for the 'bronchial infection' - zithromax, and for 3 days you are giving the person medication. Two days later the temperature spikes to 104, and tylenol and motrin do not lower it, a cool bath doesn''t lower it. You call the doctor and he returns the call 45 minutes later and says not to worry. When it hits 105.5, then you should head to the hospital.
You continue giving them the tylenol and motrin and within 14 hours the fever has broken and within 36 hours is gone. They tell you they are better, up, doing things, going places ... and then, like a shark in the dark of waters, it returns.
The temperature spikes up to 101.5. Off you go to the doctor after dealing with insipidly pathetic individuals who have the brains of a gopher - they have a mantra:
THEM: whats your insurance.
ME: the same as it was 3 days ago.
THEM: And what is it?
ME: I don't know, whatever it was it still is, I don't have the card.
CLICK - They hung up.
I called back.
ME: Yes, the person i was speaking to hung up on me.
THEM: What is the problem you are having
ME: [ I explain it again]
THEM: Whats your insurance
ME: I don't know, its the same as it was 3 days ago and before that a week - same same - nothing has changed.
THEM: Ok, let me look up your file.
THEM: Ok, is it still Blue Cross
ME: I guess.
THEM: Ok.
I get to the doctor's office and after signing in, 10 minutes later a female calls me up:
THEM: Is your address still the same?
ME: Yes
THEM: And your insurance is still Blue Cross?
ME: That hasn't changed since I made the appointment.
I went and sat down.
I don't know if I make it clear enough how much I do not like dealing with people like the above three individuals. I will refrain from any other adjectives or descriptive NOUNS to describe them.
40 minutes later into the doctors office.
10 minutes later - Doctor comes in.
It is perfectly ok to waste my time on the phone and 50 minutes in a waiting room.
[Note to liberals - and you think in your delusional world, that this issue will not get worse when you dump 50 million people onto the health system. You are seriously deranged and need meds more than any swine flu patient.]
Doctor checks out Person A. They leave and say they will be back to do a test. In she comes with a mask on and a helper who is also wearing a mask. They insert a long swab into the nostril. Run out of the room as quickly as they entered. 2 minutes later they bring back a little carboard test result showing positive for FLU A.
Here is where the title/subject line comes in ...
Swine Flu is part of the FLU A family.
I ask if they will test the swab to definitively determine if it is Swine Flu.
No.
Why not? Because the labs are overwhelmed. If people want to know for sure they have to go to the hospital and they will do the test.
I ask if I will ever know for sure.
No, although the only type of flu A showing up now is swine flu.
So here is my question ... why wouldn't they want to have all these swabs to test. It would be helpful. if I was a nurse or teacher in a public school - wouldn't it be important to know? And with the misdiagnosis from the first time, think of all the people who have unknowingly been exposed, and when they go to their doctor, they will never be told if they have the swine flu either ...
Why not????
What reason could their possibly be?
Wouldn't we want to know - so we can allocate resources to those areas most affected? Isn't it a serious enough problem?
politics
I am not being funny.
Imagine the following:
Person A: They complain of not feeling well. This of course always happens after 8pm - never at 9 am when the doctor's office is open - and you check their temperature and they have one, say 100.7. You give them tylenol. In 4 hours or 6, you give them some motrin. They complain their throat hurts. The temperature jumps to 102, and despite all efforts, even with medication it does not go below 101. Say the next day you take Person A to the doctor. You ask the doctor about swine flu. They say no, it is a respiratory or bronchial infection. If it was swine flu the person would be severely lethargic, unable to walk or sit upright. You go out and buy the medication for the 'bronchial infection' - zithromax, and for 3 days you are giving the person medication. Two days later the temperature spikes to 104, and tylenol and motrin do not lower it, a cool bath doesn''t lower it. You call the doctor and he returns the call 45 minutes later and says not to worry. When it hits 105.5, then you should head to the hospital.
You continue giving them the tylenol and motrin and within 14 hours the fever has broken and within 36 hours is gone. They tell you they are better, up, doing things, going places ... and then, like a shark in the dark of waters, it returns.
The temperature spikes up to 101.5. Off you go to the doctor after dealing with insipidly pathetic individuals who have the brains of a gopher - they have a mantra:
THEM: whats your insurance.
ME: the same as it was 3 days ago.
THEM: And what is it?
ME: I don't know, whatever it was it still is, I don't have the card.
CLICK - They hung up.
I called back.
ME: Yes, the person i was speaking to hung up on me.
THEM: What is the problem you are having
ME: [ I explain it again]
THEM: Whats your insurance
ME: I don't know, its the same as it was 3 days ago and before that a week - same same - nothing has changed.
THEM: Ok, let me look up your file.
THEM: Ok, is it still Blue Cross
ME: I guess.
THEM: Ok.
I get to the doctor's office and after signing in, 10 minutes later a female calls me up:
THEM: Is your address still the same?
ME: Yes
THEM: And your insurance is still Blue Cross?
ME: That hasn't changed since I made the appointment.
I went and sat down.
I don't know if I make it clear enough how much I do not like dealing with people like the above three individuals. I will refrain from any other adjectives or descriptive NOUNS to describe them.
40 minutes later into the doctors office.
10 minutes later - Doctor comes in.
It is perfectly ok to waste my time on the phone and 50 minutes in a waiting room.
[Note to liberals - and you think in your delusional world, that this issue will not get worse when you dump 50 million people onto the health system. You are seriously deranged and need meds more than any swine flu patient.]
Doctor checks out Person A. They leave and say they will be back to do a test. In she comes with a mask on and a helper who is also wearing a mask. They insert a long swab into the nostril. Run out of the room as quickly as they entered. 2 minutes later they bring back a little carboard test result showing positive for FLU A.
Here is where the title/subject line comes in ...
Swine Flu is part of the FLU A family.
I ask if they will test the swab to definitively determine if it is Swine Flu.
No.
Why not? Because the labs are overwhelmed. If people want to know for sure they have to go to the hospital and they will do the test.
I ask if I will ever know for sure.
No, although the only type of flu A showing up now is swine flu.
So here is my question ... why wouldn't they want to have all these swabs to test. It would be helpful. if I was a nurse or teacher in a public school - wouldn't it be important to know? And with the misdiagnosis from the first time, think of all the people who have unknowingly been exposed, and when they go to their doctor, they will never be told if they have the swine flu either ...
Why not????
What reason could their possibly be?
Wouldn't we want to know - so we can allocate resources to those areas most affected? Isn't it a serious enough problem?
politics
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Swine Flu: The End is Hear
For all those who believe global warming is occuring, you have followed the UN down that road - their orgs and their support has led the way on this front. Or the non-profit group Gore belongs to, which is affiliated and used much from UN sources ... now the UN is again speaking and telling us millions will die of Swine Flu. You will recall they said 'millions' will die from global warming ... apparently millions more will die from Swine Flu.
If you believe them opn global warming, I will expect you to be kissing your butts goodbye at this time, given their warnings!!
Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'
UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines
Rajeev Syal
The Observer, Sunday 20 September 2009
The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer.
The disclosure will provoke concerns that health officials will not be able to stem the growth of the worldwide H1N1 pandemic in developing countries. If the virus takes hold in the poorest nations, millions could die and the economies of fragile countries could be destroyed.
Health ministers around the globe were sent the warning on Thursday in a report on the costs of averting a humanitarian disaster in the next few months. It comes as officials inside the World Health Organisation, the UN's public health body, said they feared they would not be able to raise half that amount because of the global downturn.
Gregory Hartl of WHO said the report required an urgent response from rich nations. "There needs to be recognition that the whole world is affected by this pandemic and the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. We have seen how H1N1 has taken hold in richer nations and in the southern hemisphere. We have been given fair warning and must act soon," he said.
The report was drawn up by UN officials over the last two months. It was commissioned in July after Ban ki-moon, the UN's secretary general, expressed concern that the H1NI virus could have a severe impact on the world's poorest countries.
It paints a disastrous picture for the world's most vulnerable people unless there is immediate action. "There is a window in which it will be possible to help poor countries get as ready as they can for H1N1 and that window is closing rapidly," it says.
"Countries where health services are overburdened by diseases, such as HIV/Aids, tuberculosis and malaria, will have great difficulty managing the surge of cases. And if the electricity and water sectors are not able to maintain services, this will have serious implications for the ability of the health sector to function.
"If suppliers of fuel, food, telecommunications, finance or transport services have not developed plans as to how they would continue to deliver their services, the consequences could be significantly intensified," it adds.
The 47-page report provides a detailed breakdown of the basic needs of 75 vulnerable countries with the weakest capacity to withstand an escalation of the virus. Six countries from Latin America, including Cuba and Bolivia, 21 countries from Asia and the Pacific such as North Korea and Bangladesh, and 40 countries from Africa such as Congo and Eritrea are included in the survey.
UN officials say in the report that £700m should be spent on antiviral drugs and vaccines to protect health care workers and other essential personnel as well as cover those suffering from severe illness. They have identified 85 countries that do not have the ability to access vaccines from any other source and intend to cover 5-10% of each population.
A further £147m should be put aside to organise vaccine campaigns, improve communications, monitor levels of illness and improve laboratory capacity in 61 countries, the report claims. The remainder should be used to pay for the WHO and other UN-related organisations to help in these countries as well as an emergency fund for additional antiviral medicines, it argues.
The UN's efforts were boosted last week when nine countries, including Britain and the US, pledged to give the equivalent of a 10% share of their swine flu vaccine supply to help fight the deadly virus's global spread. In Britain, Douglas Alexander, the development secretary, pledged to give £23m.
Some officials within WHO believe, however, that this will not be enough. One said that richer countries were reluctant to pay out all of the money that was needed. "The downturn means that governments countries are reluctant to give," he said.
Another said: "The money is a trickle, not a flood. It is going to be a struggle. If we are not careful, the virus could destroy a burgeoning economy or democracy."
The UN's request for the money comes as the virus begins to establish itself in some of the world's most vulnerable countries. On Wednesday, health officials told one website that the African continent had recorded 8,187 confirmed cases of swine flu and 41 deaths.
Swine flu was declared a pandemic in June and has since been identified in 180 countries. Pandemic experts believe that the western world, including Britain, is facing a second wave of the virus.
swine flu
If you believe them opn global warming, I will expect you to be kissing your butts goodbye at this time, given their warnings!!
Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m'
UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines
Rajeev Syal
The Observer, Sunday 20 September 2009
The swine flu pandemic could kill millions and cause anarchy in the world's poorest nations unless £900m can be raised from rich countries to pay for vaccines and antiviral medicines, says a UN report leaked to the Observer.
The disclosure will provoke concerns that health officials will not be able to stem the growth of the worldwide H1N1 pandemic in developing countries. If the virus takes hold in the poorest nations, millions could die and the economies of fragile countries could be destroyed.
Health ministers around the globe were sent the warning on Thursday in a report on the costs of averting a humanitarian disaster in the next few months. It comes as officials inside the World Health Organisation, the UN's public health body, said they feared they would not be able to raise half that amount because of the global downturn.
Gregory Hartl of WHO said the report required an urgent response from rich nations. "There needs to be recognition that the whole world is affected by this pandemic and the chain is only as strong as its weakest link. We have seen how H1N1 has taken hold in richer nations and in the southern hemisphere. We have been given fair warning and must act soon," he said.
The report was drawn up by UN officials over the last two months. It was commissioned in July after Ban ki-moon, the UN's secretary general, expressed concern that the H1NI virus could have a severe impact on the world's poorest countries.
It paints a disastrous picture for the world's most vulnerable people unless there is immediate action. "There is a window in which it will be possible to help poor countries get as ready as they can for H1N1 and that window is closing rapidly," it says.
"Countries where health services are overburdened by diseases, such as HIV/Aids, tuberculosis and malaria, will have great difficulty managing the surge of cases. And if the electricity and water sectors are not able to maintain services, this will have serious implications for the ability of the health sector to function.
"If suppliers of fuel, food, telecommunications, finance or transport services have not developed plans as to how they would continue to deliver their services, the consequences could be significantly intensified," it adds.
The 47-page report provides a detailed breakdown of the basic needs of 75 vulnerable countries with the weakest capacity to withstand an escalation of the virus. Six countries from Latin America, including Cuba and Bolivia, 21 countries from Asia and the Pacific such as North Korea and Bangladesh, and 40 countries from Africa such as Congo and Eritrea are included in the survey.
UN officials say in the report that £700m should be spent on antiviral drugs and vaccines to protect health care workers and other essential personnel as well as cover those suffering from severe illness. They have identified 85 countries that do not have the ability to access vaccines from any other source and intend to cover 5-10% of each population.
A further £147m should be put aside to organise vaccine campaigns, improve communications, monitor levels of illness and improve laboratory capacity in 61 countries, the report claims. The remainder should be used to pay for the WHO and other UN-related organisations to help in these countries as well as an emergency fund for additional antiviral medicines, it argues.
The UN's efforts were boosted last week when nine countries, including Britain and the US, pledged to give the equivalent of a 10% share of their swine flu vaccine supply to help fight the deadly virus's global spread. In Britain, Douglas Alexander, the development secretary, pledged to give £23m.
Some officials within WHO believe, however, that this will not be enough. One said that richer countries were reluctant to pay out all of the money that was needed. "The downturn means that governments countries are reluctant to give," he said.
Another said: "The money is a trickle, not a flood. It is going to be a struggle. If we are not careful, the virus could destroy a burgeoning economy or democracy."
The UN's request for the money comes as the virus begins to establish itself in some of the world's most vulnerable countries. On Wednesday, health officials told one website that the African continent had recorded 8,187 confirmed cases of swine flu and 41 deaths.
Swine flu was declared a pandemic in June and has since been identified in 180 countries. Pandemic experts believe that the western world, including Britain, is facing a second wave of the virus.
swine flu
Friday, September 18, 2009
WHO: ON Swine Flu
WHO warns of major shortfall in swine flu vaccine
September 19, 2009
SMH.com.au
Production of swine flu vaccines will fall "substantially" short of the amount needed to protect the global population, the World Health Organisation warned Friday as the pandemic death toll rose.
"Current supplies of pandemic vaccine are inadequate for a world population in which virtually everyone is susceptible to infection by a new and readily contagious virus," WHO director general Margaret Chan said in a statement.
Despite new evidence that only one dose of the vaccines currently being tested will be enough for most people, WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said output next year will be "substantially less" than the 4.9 billion doses annual production forecast.
Some 25 pharmaceutical laboratories working on vaccines have indicated that weekly production is lower than 94 million doses, he said.
In May, the WHO had forecast a weekly output of 94.3 million doses if full scale vaccine production was launched.
But pharmaceutical companies have in recent weeks slashed their production expectations due to poorer than expected yields from the so-called "seed virus" strains developed by WHO-approved laboratories.
Amid growing fears that poorer nations will not get enough vaccines, the United States led nine countries which on Thursday pledged to make 10 percent of their swine flu vaccine supply available to other nations in need.
The UN health agency's chief applauded the move by the United States, Australia, Brazil, Britain, France, Italy, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland.
"Given that current demand outstrips supply, these donations, together with the doses pledged by manufacturers, will help increase supplies of pandemic vaccines to populations that would otherwise not have access," said Chan.
Swine flu cases are expected to increase as the Northern Hemisphere enters its winter season. Britain has already reported a new surge in caseload.
The WHO also announced Friday that the global flu death toll has reached 3,486, up 281 from a week ago.
The UN agency said the Americas region still has the highest death toll, at 2,625. The Asia-Pacific reported 620 fatalities, while Europe recorded at least 140 deaths. In the Middle East, 61 people succumbed to the virus while in Africa, 40 people have died from it.
The WHO also said flu activity was "above the seasonal baseline" in the United States and that it has reached epidemic levels in France and Japan.
Transmission is rife in central and south America and Asia, it added, while in temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere, such as Australia and South Africa, flu activity is declining.
Experts have previously predicted that about one third of the world's population of more than 6.5 billion people could be affected by A(H1N1). But they stress that so far most victims are suffering only mild symptoms.
Swine flu
September 19, 2009
SMH.com.au
Production of swine flu vaccines will fall "substantially" short of the amount needed to protect the global population, the World Health Organisation warned Friday as the pandemic death toll rose.
"Current supplies of pandemic vaccine are inadequate for a world population in which virtually everyone is susceptible to infection by a new and readily contagious virus," WHO director general Margaret Chan said in a statement.
Despite new evidence that only one dose of the vaccines currently being tested will be enough for most people, WHO spokesman Gregory Hartl said output next year will be "substantially less" than the 4.9 billion doses annual production forecast.
Some 25 pharmaceutical laboratories working on vaccines have indicated that weekly production is lower than 94 million doses, he said.
In May, the WHO had forecast a weekly output of 94.3 million doses if full scale vaccine production was launched.
But pharmaceutical companies have in recent weeks slashed their production expectations due to poorer than expected yields from the so-called "seed virus" strains developed by WHO-approved laboratories.
Amid growing fears that poorer nations will not get enough vaccines, the United States led nine countries which on Thursday pledged to make 10 percent of their swine flu vaccine supply available to other nations in need.
The UN health agency's chief applauded the move by the United States, Australia, Brazil, Britain, France, Italy, New Zealand, Norway and Switzerland.
"Given that current demand outstrips supply, these donations, together with the doses pledged by manufacturers, will help increase supplies of pandemic vaccines to populations that would otherwise not have access," said Chan.
Swine flu cases are expected to increase as the Northern Hemisphere enters its winter season. Britain has already reported a new surge in caseload.
The WHO also announced Friday that the global flu death toll has reached 3,486, up 281 from a week ago.
The UN agency said the Americas region still has the highest death toll, at 2,625. The Asia-Pacific reported 620 fatalities, while Europe recorded at least 140 deaths. In the Middle East, 61 people succumbed to the virus while in Africa, 40 people have died from it.
The WHO also said flu activity was "above the seasonal baseline" in the United States and that it has reached epidemic levels in France and Japan.
Transmission is rife in central and south America and Asia, it added, while in temperate regions of the Southern Hemisphere, such as Australia and South Africa, flu activity is declining.
Experts have previously predicted that about one third of the world's population of more than 6.5 billion people could be affected by A(H1N1). But they stress that so far most victims are suffering only mild symptoms.
Swine flu
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
H1N1 - Brasil Style and Canada Body bags
Two articles. The first: Brazil, with stats on deaths so far. The second, on Canadian efforts or lack of, to bother - just send body bags.
Brazil registers 899 swine flu deaths: official
Sep 16, 2009
AFP
Brazil has registered 899 deaths from swine flu, maintaining its status as the country worst-hit by the pandemic, according to the health ministry in South America's largest nation.
In announcing the data, the ministry also said that the number of serious cases in the country "fell for the fifth straight week," indicating a reduction of the spread of the A(H1N1) virus.
Brazil became the country with the highest death toll in late August when it surpassed the United States, which now has 593 swine-flu-related fatalities. Brazil's neighbor Argentina has 512 deaths.
In its latest bulletin, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of September 6 the virus has killed at least 3,205 people worldwide after being discovered in March this year in Mexico.
Southeastern Sao Paulo state has been the worst hit, with 327 deaths, followed by Parana in the south with 222. Rio de Janeiro has recorded 84 deaths.
On Tuesday, the WHO warned swine flu will have a "devastating effect" on poor countries where lives will be lost due to ill-equipped health care facilities.
"The pandemic will test the world on the issue of fairness in a substantial way," WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a speech in Copenhagen.
She noted that swine flu will cause "manageable disruption" in affluent countries.
But it will "almost certainly have a devastating impact in countries with few health facilities and staff, no regular supplies of essential medicines, little diagnostic and laboratory capacities, and vast populations with no access to safe water and sanitation," she said.
US drug regulators Tuesday approved a swine flu vaccine, keeping officials on track to begin a mass vaccination campaign by next month.
The US government has purchased 195 million doses of swine flu vaccine and will make shots against the influenza A(H1N1) virus available free of charge starting next month, Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said.
"The large-scale 2009 H1N1 vaccine program will begin mid-October with small amounts of vaccine becoming available the first week of October," she said.
*****************************************
Body bags disrupt Canada's flu-readiness message
Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:41pm EDT
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - The Canadian government sent body bags to some remote Indian reserves as it prepared for the winter flu season, sending a jarring message at odds with its promise that it's ready for the H1N1 flu.
The body bags went to some reserves in Manitoba, the western province in which some remote Indian communities were hard-hit by the flu in the spring, Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said on Wednesday.
"It is very disturbing," Aglukkaq told reporters on a conference call. "It's a serious issue and it's very concerning to me."
Aglukkaq said she didn't have details of the body-bag shipments and has ordered officials to investigate.
At least four Manitoba reserves received body bags from Canada's health department in shipments that also included supplies like masks and hand sanitizer, the Winnipeg Free Press said.
"This says to me they've given up," the newspaper quoted Chief David Harper of Northern Manitoba's Garden Hill reserve, which received some of the body bags, as saying.
Sending body bags is "a totally unnecessary thing," said chief public health officer Dr. David Butler-Jones.
Canada, a country of 33.6 million people, has ordered 50.4 million doses of vaccine and plans to begin immunizations in November. If Canada doesn't need all its order, it will leave some vaccines available for other countries, Butler-Jones said.
vaccine.
Brazil registers 899 swine flu deaths: official
Sep 16, 2009
AFP
Brazil has registered 899 deaths from swine flu, maintaining its status as the country worst-hit by the pandemic, according to the health ministry in South America's largest nation.
In announcing the data, the ministry also said that the number of serious cases in the country "fell for the fifth straight week," indicating a reduction of the spread of the A(H1N1) virus.
Brazil became the country with the highest death toll in late August when it surpassed the United States, which now has 593 swine-flu-related fatalities. Brazil's neighbor Argentina has 512 deaths.
In its latest bulletin, the World Health Organization (WHO) reported that as of September 6 the virus has killed at least 3,205 people worldwide after being discovered in March this year in Mexico.
Southeastern Sao Paulo state has been the worst hit, with 327 deaths, followed by Parana in the south with 222. Rio de Janeiro has recorded 84 deaths.
On Tuesday, the WHO warned swine flu will have a "devastating effect" on poor countries where lives will be lost due to ill-equipped health care facilities.
"The pandemic will test the world on the issue of fairness in a substantial way," WHO chief Margaret Chan said in a speech in Copenhagen.
She noted that swine flu will cause "manageable disruption" in affluent countries.
But it will "almost certainly have a devastating impact in countries with few health facilities and staff, no regular supplies of essential medicines, little diagnostic and laboratory capacities, and vast populations with no access to safe water and sanitation," she said.
US drug regulators Tuesday approved a swine flu vaccine, keeping officials on track to begin a mass vaccination campaign by next month.
The US government has purchased 195 million doses of swine flu vaccine and will make shots against the influenza A(H1N1) virus available free of charge starting next month, Health Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said.
"The large-scale 2009 H1N1 vaccine program will begin mid-October with small amounts of vaccine becoming available the first week of October," she said.
*****************************************
Body bags disrupt Canada's flu-readiness message
Wed Sep 16, 2009 5:41pm EDT
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) - The Canadian government sent body bags to some remote Indian reserves as it prepared for the winter flu season, sending a jarring message at odds with its promise that it's ready for the H1N1 flu.
The body bags went to some reserves in Manitoba, the western province in which some remote Indian communities were hard-hit by the flu in the spring, Health Minister Leona Aglukkaq said on Wednesday.
"It is very disturbing," Aglukkaq told reporters on a conference call. "It's a serious issue and it's very concerning to me."
Aglukkaq said she didn't have details of the body-bag shipments and has ordered officials to investigate.
At least four Manitoba reserves received body bags from Canada's health department in shipments that also included supplies like masks and hand sanitizer, the Winnipeg Free Press said.
"This says to me they've given up," the newspaper quoted Chief David Harper of Northern Manitoba's Garden Hill reserve, which received some of the body bags, as saying.
Sending body bags is "a totally unnecessary thing," said chief public health officer Dr. David Butler-Jones.
Canada, a country of 33.6 million people, has ordered 50.4 million doses of vaccine and plans to begin immunizations in November. If Canada doesn't need all its order, it will leave some vaccines available for other countries, Butler-Jones said.
vaccine.
Saturday, August 29, 2009
Swine Flu: CDC Says up to 90,000 could die
WH Warns Massive Swine Flu Spread
Dire Report Says 50 Percent Infection Rate, Up to 90,000 Deaths Possible This Flu Season From H1N1
By BRIAN HARTMAN, SARAH HERNDON and LEE FERRAN
Aug. 25, 2009 —
ABC News
Up to half of the population of the U.S. could come down with the swine flu and 90,000 could die this season, according to a dire report from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
The report, which claims as many as 1.8 million people could end up in the hospital seeking treatment for the H1N1 virus, comes as government officials push drug companies to make a vaccine available next month.
"It's a plausible scenario that we need to be prepared for," said Marty Cetron, the Center for Disease Control's director of the Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.
The report says that under a worst-case scenario, between 60 and 120 million Americans could get sick with the swine flu and another 30 million could contract the virus but not show symptoms. Between 30,000 and 90,000 could die -- more than twice the annual average of deaths associated with the seasonal flu. Those deaths generally occur in people older than 65.
The swine flu is "unusual" however, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said, because it tends to affect children and young adults more harshly than others and "hasn't yet affected seniors."
The report says the skyrocketing infections will peak on Oct. 15 -- the exact date a vaccine is expected to be delivered. The White House advisors suggest backing up the vaccine date by a full month -- meaning a vaccine and dosage that is still being tested would be used.
"Trying to rush in with an unknown, with an untested quantity of vaccine doesn't appeal to me at all," said Vanderbilt University's William Schaffner.
The council recommended that manufacturers begin to package the vaccine so that it could be used by those that are at high risk in September. All five manufacturers have already been asked by the government to bottle the vaccine when it's ready.
But health officials announced a delay in the vaccine production last week. Originally, the government expected 120 million doses to be available on Oct. 15, but it now estimates there will only be 45 million, with 20 million more each week through December.
Schools Take Precautions
The report calls the H1N1 virus a "serious threat to our nation and the world."
"We're going to have people hospitalized and we will, unfortunately, have more deaths," Sebelius said.
Many swine flu experts view the numbers as reasonable.
"This looks like reasonable estimates and consistent with how pandemic viruses act," said Greg Poland of the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn.
"My reaction is that the numbers, although scary, may be quite accurate," said Joan Nichols of the University of Texas, Galveston.
But others are more skeptical.
"These speculations have no firm scientific basis, only a historical precedent from almost a 100 years ago and epidemiologic data from recent circulating virus patterns," said UCLA's Peter Katona. "Viruses have a mind of their own, and we will have to just see what happens."
Many colleges are taking steps to prepare their students for a significant spread.
At universities in Louisiana, Colorado, Tennessee and Texas, sick students are being kept in their rooms and given special surgical masks and told not to kiss.
[Is this like abstinence?]
At the University of Kansas 47 students are already sick with a flu, but it has not yet been cofirmed if it was the H1N1 strain.
Swine flu
Dire Report Says 50 Percent Infection Rate, Up to 90,000 Deaths Possible This Flu Season From H1N1
By BRIAN HARTMAN, SARAH HERNDON and LEE FERRAN
Aug. 25, 2009 —
ABC News
Up to half of the population of the U.S. could come down with the swine flu and 90,000 could die this season, according to a dire report from the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
The report, which claims as many as 1.8 million people could end up in the hospital seeking treatment for the H1N1 virus, comes as government officials push drug companies to make a vaccine available next month.
"It's a plausible scenario that we need to be prepared for," said Marty Cetron, the Center for Disease Control's director of the Division of Global Migration and Quarantine.
The report says that under a worst-case scenario, between 60 and 120 million Americans could get sick with the swine flu and another 30 million could contract the virus but not show symptoms. Between 30,000 and 90,000 could die -- more than twice the annual average of deaths associated with the seasonal flu. Those deaths generally occur in people older than 65.
The swine flu is "unusual" however, U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said, because it tends to affect children and young adults more harshly than others and "hasn't yet affected seniors."
The report says the skyrocketing infections will peak on Oct. 15 -- the exact date a vaccine is expected to be delivered. The White House advisors suggest backing up the vaccine date by a full month -- meaning a vaccine and dosage that is still being tested would be used.
"Trying to rush in with an unknown, with an untested quantity of vaccine doesn't appeal to me at all," said Vanderbilt University's William Schaffner.
The council recommended that manufacturers begin to package the vaccine so that it could be used by those that are at high risk in September. All five manufacturers have already been asked by the government to bottle the vaccine when it's ready.
But health officials announced a delay in the vaccine production last week. Originally, the government expected 120 million doses to be available on Oct. 15, but it now estimates there will only be 45 million, with 20 million more each week through December.
Schools Take Precautions
The report calls the H1N1 virus a "serious threat to our nation and the world."
"We're going to have people hospitalized and we will, unfortunately, have more deaths," Sebelius said.
Many swine flu experts view the numbers as reasonable.
"This looks like reasonable estimates and consistent with how pandemic viruses act," said Greg Poland of the Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minn.
"My reaction is that the numbers, although scary, may be quite accurate," said Joan Nichols of the University of Texas, Galveston.
But others are more skeptical.
"These speculations have no firm scientific basis, only a historical precedent from almost a 100 years ago and epidemiologic data from recent circulating virus patterns," said UCLA's Peter Katona. "Viruses have a mind of their own, and we will have to just see what happens."
Many colleges are taking steps to prepare their students for a significant spread.
At universities in Louisiana, Colorado, Tennessee and Texas, sick students are being kept in their rooms and given special surgical masks and told not to kiss.
[Is this like abstinence?]
At the University of Kansas 47 students are already sick with a flu, but it has not yet been cofirmed if it was the H1N1 strain.
Swine flu
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
SWINE FLU: 1 out of 3 on earth!
WHO maintains 2 billion estimate for likely H1N1 cases
04 Aug 2009
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation stuck on Tuesday to its statement that about two billion people could catch H1N1 influenza by the time the flu pandemic ends.
But the estimate comes with a big health warning: no one knows how many people so far have caught the new strain, known as swine flu, and the final number will never be known as many cases are so mild they may go unnoticed.
"By the end of a pandemic, anywhere between 15-45 percent of a population will have been infected by the new pandemic virus," WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said in a statement.
"Thirty percent is a midpoint estimate and 30 percent of the world's population is 2 billion."
But she added: "We must remember however, that attempts to estimate infection rates can only be very rough."
Early in the outbreak, which was first detected in April, Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting Assistant Director-General of the U.N. agency, fuelled accusations the WHO was creating panic about the disease when he used the two billion figure.
But the WHO, which raised its global flu alert to the highest level on June 11, declaring a worldwide pandemic, has since said the strain is already spreading much faster than previous flu pandemics.
At the same time, because most victims suffer only mild symptoms, it has told countries they no longer need to try to report each case, but concentrate on monitoring suspicious concentrations of the disease and tracking deaths.
AUTUMN RISK
Bhatiasevi earlier told a briefing the WHO was coordinating a network of independent institutions trying to project the total number of cases. Because no one currently has such an estimate, it is not possible to state the H1N1 mortality rate.
The WHO's latest update on July 27 said a total of 816 people had died from H1N1, while the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases, including deaths, was 134,503 -- a figure well below the likely real total of infections which may already be in the millions, according to health experts.
As the northern hemisphere autumn approaches, and with it the onset of seasonal flu, the WHO is working with drug companies to ensure vaccines to cope both with H1N1 and seasonal flu will be available.
WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said the agency hoped to give an update on its vaccine plans later this week. Leading flu vaccine makers include Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay.
H1N1 rapidly became the most commonly isolated virus in flu cases in South America and Australia after seasonal flu started there, Bhatiasevi said. But that may be a distorted picture, because specimens for testing were often associated with events such as school closures or screening of travellers where H1N1 was suspected anyway.
In South Africa, where H1N1 arrived later, many cases of the seasonal flu virus H3N2 were reported, but as the flu season wanes and H3N2 cases decrease, H1N1 has begun to make up a much higher proportion of flu cases there.
The WHO has appointed Dr Mohamed Hacen as project manager for H1N1 in Dr Fukuda's influenza team, Bhatiasevi said.
A Mauritanian, Dr Hacen has served as WHO representative in several African countries and has extensive experience in the field and in communicable diseases.
flu
04 Aug 2009
By Jonathan Lynn
GENEVA, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation stuck on Tuesday to its statement that about two billion people could catch H1N1 influenza by the time the flu pandemic ends.
But the estimate comes with a big health warning: no one knows how many people so far have caught the new strain, known as swine flu, and the final number will never be known as many cases are so mild they may go unnoticed.
"By the end of a pandemic, anywhere between 15-45 percent of a population will have been infected by the new pandemic virus," WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi said in a statement.
"Thirty percent is a midpoint estimate and 30 percent of the world's population is 2 billion."
But she added: "We must remember however, that attempts to estimate infection rates can only be very rough."
Early in the outbreak, which was first detected in April, Dr Keiji Fukuda, acting Assistant Director-General of the U.N. agency, fuelled accusations the WHO was creating panic about the disease when he used the two billion figure.
But the WHO, which raised its global flu alert to the highest level on June 11, declaring a worldwide pandemic, has since said the strain is already spreading much faster than previous flu pandemics.
At the same time, because most victims suffer only mild symptoms, it has told countries they no longer need to try to report each case, but concentrate on monitoring suspicious concentrations of the disease and tracking deaths.
AUTUMN RISK
Bhatiasevi earlier told a briefing the WHO was coordinating a network of independent institutions trying to project the total number of cases. Because no one currently has such an estimate, it is not possible to state the H1N1 mortality rate.
The WHO's latest update on July 27 said a total of 816 people had died from H1N1, while the total number of laboratory-confirmed cases, including deaths, was 134,503 -- a figure well below the likely real total of infections which may already be in the millions, according to health experts.
As the northern hemisphere autumn approaches, and with it the onset of seasonal flu, the WHO is working with drug companies to ensure vaccines to cope both with H1N1 and seasonal flu will be available.
WHO spokeswoman Fadela Chaib said the agency hoped to give an update on its vaccine plans later this week. Leading flu vaccine makers include Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay.
H1N1 rapidly became the most commonly isolated virus in flu cases in South America and Australia after seasonal flu started there, Bhatiasevi said. But that may be a distorted picture, because specimens for testing were often associated with events such as school closures or screening of travellers where H1N1 was suspected anyway.
In South Africa, where H1N1 arrived later, many cases of the seasonal flu virus H3N2 were reported, but as the flu season wanes and H3N2 cases decrease, H1N1 has begun to make up a much higher proportion of flu cases there.
The WHO has appointed Dr Mohamed Hacen as project manager for H1N1 in Dr Fukuda's influenza team, Bhatiasevi said.
A Mauritanian, Dr Hacen has served as WHO representative in several African countries and has extensive experience in the field and in communicable diseases.
flu
Wednesday, July 29, 2009
US Military on Swine Flu
Military planning for possible H1N1 outbreak
July 29, 2009
CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. military wants to establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials.
The proposal is awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
The officials would not be identified because the proposal from U.S. Northern Command's Gen. Victor Renuart has not been approved by the secretary.
The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There is no final decision on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it would likely include personnel from all branches of the military.
It has yet to be determined how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.
Civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts in the event of a major outbreak, the official said. The military, as they would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.
As a first step, Gates is being asked to sign a so-called "execution order" that would authorize the military to begin to conduct the detailed planning to execute the proposed plan.
Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said.
Swine flu
July 29, 2009
CNN
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- The U.S. military wants to establish regional teams of military personnel to assist civilian authorities in the event of a significant outbreak of the H1N1 virus this fall, according to Defense Department officials.
The proposal is awaiting final approval from Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
The officials would not be identified because the proposal from U.S. Northern Command's Gen. Victor Renuart has not been approved by the secretary.
The plan calls for military task forces to work in conjunction with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. There is no final decision on how the military effort would be manned, but one source said it would likely include personnel from all branches of the military.
It has yet to be determined how many troops would be needed and whether they would come from the active duty or the National Guard and Reserve forces.
Civilian authorities would lead any relief efforts in the event of a major outbreak, the official said. The military, as they would for a natural disaster or other significant emergency situation, could provide support and fulfill any tasks that civilian authorities could not, such as air transport or testing of large numbers of viral samples from infected patients.
As a first step, Gates is being asked to sign a so-called "execution order" that would authorize the military to begin to conduct the detailed planning to execute the proposed plan.
Orders to deploy actual forces would be reviewed later, depending on how much of a health threat the flu poses this fall, the officials said.
Swine flu
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
WHO: Swine Flu: Unstoppable!
Swine flu 'unstoppable', all countries will need vaccine: WHO
Jul 13, 2009
AFP
All countries will need access to vaccines against swine flu as the pandemic is "unstoppable," a senior World Health Organisation official said Monday.
flu
Jul 13, 2009
AFP
All countries will need access to vaccines against swine flu as the pandemic is "unstoppable," a senior World Health Organisation official said Monday.
flu
Saturday, July 11, 2009
Obama Health Care: UK More Dead from Swine Flu Than Any Other Country - So Much for Health Care. Part 6
Swine flu deaths in UK double as country now has third highest number of cases in the world
By Daniel Martin
10th July 2009
Daily Mail
The number of Britons who have died after contracting swine flu has almost doubled in two days to 14, officials said yesterday.
London is days away from an epidemic with the West Midlands not far behind.
Britain has the third highest number of confirmed cases of the virus in the world, just behind Mexico - where the outbreak began.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said yesterday that 14 had died so far of what was believed to be swine flu.
He would not give details of where the five latest cases were. All had underlying health problems.
Sir Liam said there were 335 people in hospital in England with swine flu of whom 43 are in critical care.
Lab tests showed that yesterday there were 9,718 confirmed cases in the UK. This was just behind Mexico, with 10,262 cases. The U.S. is in the lead with 33,902 confirmed cases.
However, Sir Liam admitted it was unknown how many in the UK were suffering from the virus as many would be treating themselves at home rather than contacting their GP.
We do know something about the people seeking help from the NHS but there will be many other people who look after themselves,' he said.
He said latest data from 100 GP surgeries around England showed that about 27,000 people per week were being diagnosed as having a flu-like illness. Of these, an estimated 8,000 will have swine flu.
The number of flu cases being seen every week works out at 51.9 per 100,000 people.
However, in London the rate is 180 per 100,000 - just short of the 200 cases that denotes an epidemic. In the West Midlands the rate is 140 per 100,000 cases.
Last week, Health Secretary Andy Burnham warned that by the end of August some 100,000 people will be coming down with the virus every day.
He moved the country on to treatment mode, which means those with flu symptoms will be encouraged to quarantine themselves at home and get a friend to pick up anti-viral drugs for them.
Sir Liam said that was still the most accurate prediction to date of what will happen. It is widely expected that the number of cases will see a surge in the winter months when flu is more prevalent.
About 15 per cent of calls to NHS Direct are currently about colds and flu, he added.
Today it emerged that a third case had been recorded of the swine flu virus becoming resistant to Tamiflu, the major drug to combat it.
The new case was in Hong Kong, to add to further cases in Japan and Denmark.
England
By Daniel Martin
10th July 2009
Daily Mail
The number of Britons who have died after contracting swine flu has almost doubled in two days to 14, officials said yesterday.
London is days away from an epidemic with the West Midlands not far behind.
Britain has the third highest number of confirmed cases of the virus in the world, just behind Mexico - where the outbreak began.
Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson said yesterday that 14 had died so far of what was believed to be swine flu.
He would not give details of where the five latest cases were. All had underlying health problems.
Sir Liam said there were 335 people in hospital in England with swine flu of whom 43 are in critical care.
Lab tests showed that yesterday there were 9,718 confirmed cases in the UK. This was just behind Mexico, with 10,262 cases. The U.S. is in the lead with 33,902 confirmed cases.
However, Sir Liam admitted it was unknown how many in the UK were suffering from the virus as many would be treating themselves at home rather than contacting their GP.
We do know something about the people seeking help from the NHS but there will be many other people who look after themselves,' he said.
He said latest data from 100 GP surgeries around England showed that about 27,000 people per week were being diagnosed as having a flu-like illness. Of these, an estimated 8,000 will have swine flu.
The number of flu cases being seen every week works out at 51.9 per 100,000 people.
However, in London the rate is 180 per 100,000 - just short of the 200 cases that denotes an epidemic. In the West Midlands the rate is 140 per 100,000 cases.
Last week, Health Secretary Andy Burnham warned that by the end of August some 100,000 people will be coming down with the virus every day.
He moved the country on to treatment mode, which means those with flu symptoms will be encouraged to quarantine themselves at home and get a friend to pick up anti-viral drugs for them.
Sir Liam said that was still the most accurate prediction to date of what will happen. It is widely expected that the number of cases will see a surge in the winter months when flu is more prevalent.
About 15 per cent of calls to NHS Direct are currently about colds and flu, he added.
Today it emerged that a third case had been recorded of the swine flu virus becoming resistant to Tamiflu, the major drug to combat it.
The new case was in Hong Kong, to add to further cases in Japan and Denmark.
England
Friday, July 3, 2009
Surprise: Swine Flu never went away
Teen is swine flu's first victim in London as ministers warn 40 a day could die by end of summer
By David Derbyshire
04th July 2009
Daily Mail Online
A teenager became the fourth Briton to die from swine flu, doctors said yesterday.
The 19-year-old from London tested positive for the virus after he died on Wednesday.
Like the UK's other three swine flu victims, he was suffering from 'underlying health problems'.
The death came as the Chief Medical Officer warned against buying potentially dangerous counterfeit flu drugs over the internet.
Health experts say some of the medications on sale are useless - while others are danergous - laced with rat poison and other toxic chemicals.
Yesterday there were more than 7,400 confirmed cases of swine flu in the UK. If the number of cases continues to grow at the current pace, the UK could have 100,000 new cases every day by the end of August.
So far, most swine flu patients have suffered only mild symptoms. However, they are still be urged to stay away from GP surgeries or hospitals if they suspect they have the flu.
The latest victim lived in South London. His details were yesterday being withheld on the request of his family.
It was reported that the teenager had learning difficulties and was very ill with a rare longterm condition which left him with serious chest infections.
Dr Simon Tanner, regional director of public health for NHS London, said the capital has seen a spike in flu cases in the past week. It is now the second-worst affected area after the West Midlands with more than 1,900 cases.
[...]
'Now we're entering the most dangerous phase'
Under the Government's pandemic action plan, there are three levels of alert for a serious flu outbreak. Earlier this week the Health Secretary announced the UK would now enter the third, most serious, phase.
The first stage is Containment, which Britain entered when the first cases, a honeymoon couple, were confirmed in Scotland on April 27.
The priority is to stop the disease spreading as much as possible. Everyone with suspected swine flu has their diagnosis confirmed by a lab report, and is given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. All recent contacts of infected people are traced and also given Tamiflu. Schools are closed if teachers or pupils contract the disease.
The second stage is Outbreak Management, which the country entered on June 25.
Action against swine flu was stepped up in three 'hot spot' areas - London, Glasgow and the West Midlands - where it was no longer possible to contain its spread.
In the hot spots, suspected cases were no longer sent for lab testing, with GPs doing the diagnosis, and people with swine flu got Tamiflu, but contacts did not as a matter of course. Schools in the hotspots were no longer automatically closed.
The third stage, which the whole country has now entered, is called Treatment.
flu
By David Derbyshire
04th July 2009
Daily Mail Online
A teenager became the fourth Briton to die from swine flu, doctors said yesterday.
The 19-year-old from London tested positive for the virus after he died on Wednesday.
Like the UK's other three swine flu victims, he was suffering from 'underlying health problems'.
The death came as the Chief Medical Officer warned against buying potentially dangerous counterfeit flu drugs over the internet.
Health experts say some of the medications on sale are useless - while others are danergous - laced with rat poison and other toxic chemicals.
Yesterday there were more than 7,400 confirmed cases of swine flu in the UK. If the number of cases continues to grow at the current pace, the UK could have 100,000 new cases every day by the end of August.
So far, most swine flu patients have suffered only mild symptoms. However, they are still be urged to stay away from GP surgeries or hospitals if they suspect they have the flu.
The latest victim lived in South London. His details were yesterday being withheld on the request of his family.
It was reported that the teenager had learning difficulties and was very ill with a rare longterm condition which left him with serious chest infections.
Dr Simon Tanner, regional director of public health for NHS London, said the capital has seen a spike in flu cases in the past week. It is now the second-worst affected area after the West Midlands with more than 1,900 cases.
[...]
'Now we're entering the most dangerous phase'
Under the Government's pandemic action plan, there are three levels of alert for a serious flu outbreak. Earlier this week the Health Secretary announced the UK would now enter the third, most serious, phase.
The first stage is Containment, which Britain entered when the first cases, a honeymoon couple, were confirmed in Scotland on April 27.
The priority is to stop the disease spreading as much as possible. Everyone with suspected swine flu has their diagnosis confirmed by a lab report, and is given the anti-viral drug Tamiflu. All recent contacts of infected people are traced and also given Tamiflu. Schools are closed if teachers or pupils contract the disease.
The second stage is Outbreak Management, which the country entered on June 25.
Action against swine flu was stepped up in three 'hot spot' areas - London, Glasgow and the West Midlands - where it was no longer possible to contain its spread.
In the hot spots, suspected cases were no longer sent for lab testing, with GPs doing the diagnosis, and people with swine flu got Tamiflu, but contacts did not as a matter of course. Schools in the hotspots were no longer automatically closed.
The third stage, which the whole country has now entered, is called Treatment.
flu
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Flu Pandemic: 50% Will get the Swine Flu.
Something else we can look forward to.
Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'
Health authorities told to set up testing and drug distribution centres in case of autumn outbreak
By Jonathan Owen
Sunday, 21 June 2009
The Independent
Primary care trusts are to set up anti-viral drug distribution centres and swine flu testing clinics amid fears that the infection could spread out of control.
The Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, wrote to health authorities last week urging hospitals to test all patients who show signs of flu-like symptoms. He wrote: "Transmission from person to person in this country is increasingly common. There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK or to travel abroad."
The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent.
Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the autumn, according to health industry sources.
The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of 25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into action in a week."
Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725.
Almost 400 cases of swine flu in Britain have occurred as a result of in-country transmission, according to latest figures from the European Centre for Disease Control. The virus is continuing to gain ground, with a number of people falling ill without having been abroad or in contact with previously confirmed cases – a signal that transmission is "growing in some areas of the country", according to the Health Protection Agency. The HPA said: "We would need to have a significant number of people where you really don't know how they have got it for it to be classified as sustained community transmission. We are getting closer to that, but are not there yet."
This comes a week after Jacqui Fleming, 38, of Glasgow, became the first person to die from swine flu outside North America. Since then, health officials in Birmingham have said they can no longer contain the spread of the virus, and in Glasgow, a series of swine flu testing clinics have been set up.
Meanwhile, calls to NHS hotlines have almost doubled in the past week. Latest figures from NHS Direct reveal that 2,356 calls about swine flu were made on Thursday 18 June, up from 1,280 a week earlier.
Under a new scheme that began in June, hundreds of people calling NHS Direct about swine flu have been sent swab kits to return for testing.
Economic toll: Pandemic to cost Britain £42bn
£42bn losses are predicted to hit Britain as a result of a three per cent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) due to the swine flu pandemic, according to a new report from the Oxford Economics think tank, due to be released tomorrow. Researchers claim that swine flu could threaten already fragile businesses and put further strains on financial markets in what could become a "vicious cycle that postpones the recovery".
Deflation is a "significant risk" as a result of the pandemic's impact on the economy – putting back economic recovery by two years, says the report. The predictions are based on a 30 per cent infection rate, should a pandemic begin in October and last for six months.
A $2.5 trillion cut in global GDP is a possibility – with a flu outbreak in the autumn hitting the world economy just as it starts to recover from the credit crunch.
flu
Swine flu 'could infect up to half the population'
Health authorities told to set up testing and drug distribution centres in case of autumn outbreak
By Jonathan Owen
Sunday, 21 June 2009
The Independent
Primary care trusts are to set up anti-viral drug distribution centres and swine flu testing clinics amid fears that the infection could spread out of control.
The Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, wrote to health authorities last week urging hospitals to test all patients who show signs of flu-like symptoms. He wrote: "Transmission from person to person in this country is increasingly common. There is evidence that sporadic cases are arising with no apparent link either to cases elsewhere in the UK or to travel abroad."
The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent.
Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the autumn, according to health industry sources.
The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of 25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into action in a week."
Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725.
Almost 400 cases of swine flu in Britain have occurred as a result of in-country transmission, according to latest figures from the European Centre for Disease Control. The virus is continuing to gain ground, with a number of people falling ill without having been abroad or in contact with previously confirmed cases – a signal that transmission is "growing in some areas of the country", according to the Health Protection Agency. The HPA said: "We would need to have a significant number of people where you really don't know how they have got it for it to be classified as sustained community transmission. We are getting closer to that, but are not there yet."
This comes a week after Jacqui Fleming, 38, of Glasgow, became the first person to die from swine flu outside North America. Since then, health officials in Birmingham have said they can no longer contain the spread of the virus, and in Glasgow, a series of swine flu testing clinics have been set up.
Meanwhile, calls to NHS hotlines have almost doubled in the past week. Latest figures from NHS Direct reveal that 2,356 calls about swine flu were made on Thursday 18 June, up from 1,280 a week earlier.
Under a new scheme that began in June, hundreds of people calling NHS Direct about swine flu have been sent swab kits to return for testing.
Economic toll: Pandemic to cost Britain £42bn
£42bn losses are predicted to hit Britain as a result of a three per cent fall in gross domestic product (GDP) due to the swine flu pandemic, according to a new report from the Oxford Economics think tank, due to be released tomorrow. Researchers claim that swine flu could threaten already fragile businesses and put further strains on financial markets in what could become a "vicious cycle that postpones the recovery".
Deflation is a "significant risk" as a result of the pandemic's impact on the economy – putting back economic recovery by two years, says the report. The predictions are based on a 30 per cent infection rate, should a pandemic begin in October and last for six months.
A $2.5 trillion cut in global GDP is a possibility – with a flu outbreak in the autumn hitting the world economy just as it starts to recover from the credit crunch.
flu
Saturday, June 13, 2009
WHO - FLU has reached Pandemic
Meanwhile, most people have forgotten about it. I can't imagine why.
WHO chief: flu pandemic appears to be happening
Jun 9, 2009
FRANK JORDANS
Associated Press Writer
GENEVA (AP) - The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak appears to have reached pandemic proportions.
WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says "on the surface of it" she believes a pandemic has been reached.
Chan says she will hold a conference call with governments Wednesday in order to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement.
She told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that "Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement."
WHO says the virus has infected 26,563 people in 73 countries and caused 140 deaths. Most of the cases have been in North America but Europe and Australia have also seen a sharp increase in recent days.
flu
WHO chief: flu pandemic appears to be happening
Jun 9, 2009
FRANK JORDANS
Associated Press Writer
GENEVA (AP) - The head of the World Health Organization says the swine flu outbreak appears to have reached pandemic proportions.
WHO Director-General Margaret Chan says "on the surface of it" she believes a pandemic has been reached.
Chan says she will hold a conference call with governments Wednesday in order to verify some of the reports she has received before making a formal announcement.
She told reporters in Geneva on Tuesday that "Once I get indisputable evidence, I will make the announcement."
WHO says the virus has infected 26,563 people in 73 countries and caused 140 deaths. Most of the cases have been in North America but Europe and Australia have also seen a sharp increase in recent days.
flu
Thursday, June 11, 2009
WHO: FLU is Pandemic
WHO: Swine flu pandemic has begun, 1st in 41 years
BY MARIA CHENG and FRANK JORDANS, Associated Press Writer
June 11, 2009
GENEVA – The World Health Organization told its member nations it was declaring a swine flu pandemic Thursday — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years — as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.
In a statement sent to member countries, WHO said it decided to raise the pandemic warning level from phase 5 to 6 — its highest alert — after holding an emergency meeting on swine flu with its experts.
The long-awaited pandemic decision is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money toward efforts to contain the virus.
"At this early stage, the pandemic can be characterized globally as being moderate in severity," WHO said in the statement, urging nations not to close borders or restrict travel and trade. "(We) remain in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers."
On Wednesday, WHO said 74 countries had reported nearly 27,737 cases of swine flu, including 141 deaths.
[To read the rest of the article, click the title link.]
flu
BY MARIA CHENG and FRANK JORDANS, Associated Press Writer
June 11, 2009
GENEVA – The World Health Organization told its member nations it was declaring a swine flu pandemic Thursday — the first global flu epidemic in 41 years — as infections climbed in the United States, Europe, Australia, South America and elsewhere.
In a statement sent to member countries, WHO said it decided to raise the pandemic warning level from phase 5 to 6 — its highest alert — after holding an emergency meeting on swine flu with its experts.
The long-awaited pandemic decision is scientific confirmation that a new flu virus has emerged and is quickly circling the globe. It will trigger drugmakers to speed up production of a swine flu vaccine and prompt governments to devote more money toward efforts to contain the virus.
"At this early stage, the pandemic can be characterized globally as being moderate in severity," WHO said in the statement, urging nations not to close borders or restrict travel and trade. "(We) remain in close dialogue with influenza vaccine manufacturers."
On Wednesday, WHO said 74 countries had reported nearly 27,737 cases of swine flu, including 141 deaths.
[To read the rest of the article, click the title link.]
flu
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
Swine Flu: US
U.S. health officials troubled by new flu pattern
Mon May 18, 2009 4:12pm EDT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new influenza strain circulating around most of the United States is putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital and hitting more schools than usual, U.S. health officials said on Monday.
The H1N1 swine flu virus killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate number of children, teenagers and young adults.
This includes people needing hospitalization -- now up to 200, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.
"We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."
New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden agreed with Schuchat.
"We're seeing increasing numbers of people going to emergency departments saying they have fever and flu, particularly young people in the 5 to 17 age group, " Frieden, who has been named by U.S. President Barack Obama as the new CDC director, told a news conference.
About half of all cases of influenza are being diagnosed as the new H1N1 strain, while the rest are influenza B, or the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Flu season in the United States is usually almost over by May.
CDC officials say around 100,000 people are likely infected with the new flu strain in the United States and Schuchat said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."
MORE ILLNESS OVERALL
"We are seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from outpatient visits that we monitor than is typical for this time of year," Schuchat said.
Because doctors usually treat symptoms and only occasionally give flu tests to patients, the CDC must monitor reports of symptoms such as fever, cough and muscle aches to track flu activity. Some centers are doing actual influenza tests to confirm the patterns that are seen.
Influenza is a factor in 36,000 deaths a year in the United States and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths globally, the CDC says.
"Unlike the seasonal flu, we are seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65," Schuchat said. Usually flu kills the elderly and people with chronic diseases.
There is no evidence that a second, bacterial infection is worsening the H1N1 cases, Schuchat said.
When family members are questioned, it seems clear that children and teens are more prone to infection than older adults, Schuchat said. "People under 18 are more likely to have infections when another person in the family is infected," she said.
"One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be distantly related," Schuchat said.
An alternative hypothesis is that it just has not had a chance to make its way into the older population yet.
Mon May 18, 2009 4:12pm EDT
By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Editor
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new influenza strain circulating around most of the United States is putting a worrying number of young adults and children into the hospital and hitting more schools than usual, U.S. health officials said on Monday.
The H1N1 swine flu virus killed a vice principal at a New York City school over the weekend and has spread to 48 states. While it appears to be mild, it is affecting a disproportionate number of children, teenagers and young adults.
This includes people needing hospitalization -- now up to 200, said Dr. Anne Schuchat of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
"That's very unusual, to have so many people under 20 to require hospitalization, and some of them in (intensive care units)," Schuchat told reporters in a telephone briefing.
"We are now experiencing levels of influenza-like illness that are higher than usual for this time of year," Schuchat added. "We are also seeing outbreaks in schools, which is extremely unusual for this time of year."
New York City Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Frieden agreed with Schuchat.
"We're seeing increasing numbers of people going to emergency departments saying they have fever and flu, particularly young people in the 5 to 17 age group, " Frieden, who has been named by U.S. President Barack Obama as the new CDC director, told a news conference.
About half of all cases of influenza are being diagnosed as the new H1N1 strain, while the rest are influenza B, or the seasonal H1N1 and H3N2 strains. Flu season in the United States is usually almost over by May.
CDC officials say around 100,000 people are likely infected with the new flu strain in the United States and Schuchat said the 5,123 confirmed and probable cases and six deaths in the United States were "the tip of the iceberg."
MORE ILLNESS OVERALL
"We are seeing more reports of influenza-like illness from outpatient visits that we monitor than is typical for this time of year," Schuchat said.
Because doctors usually treat symptoms and only occasionally give flu tests to patients, the CDC must monitor reports of symptoms such as fever, cough and muscle aches to track flu activity. Some centers are doing actual influenza tests to confirm the patterns that are seen.
Influenza is a factor in 36,000 deaths a year in the United States and 250,000 to 500,000 deaths globally, the CDC says.
"Unlike the seasonal flu, we are seeing relatively few cases or hospitalizations in people over 65," Schuchat said. Usually flu kills the elderly and people with chronic diseases.
There is no evidence that a second, bacterial infection is worsening the H1N1 cases, Schuchat said.
When family members are questioned, it seems clear that children and teens are more prone to infection than older adults, Schuchat said. "People under 18 are more likely to have infections when another person in the family is infected," she said.
"One of our working hypotheses is that older adults may have some pre-existing protection against this virus due to their exposure long ago to some virus that may be distantly related," Schuchat said.
An alternative hypothesis is that it just has not had a chance to make its way into the older population yet.
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Swine Flu: US has over 2200 Cases
U.S. has more than 2,000 new flu cases: CDC
Sat May 9, 2009 11:24am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has 2,254 confirmed cases of the new H1N1 swine influenza, with 104 people in the hospital, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday.
"Today there are almost 3,000 probable and confirmed cases here in the United States," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news briefing. "The good news is we are not seeing a rise above the epidemic threshold in that system."
swine flu
Sat May 9, 2009 11:24am EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States has 2,254 confirmed cases of the new H1N1 swine influenza, with 104 people in the hospital, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Saturday.
"Today there are almost 3,000 probable and confirmed cases here in the United States," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat told a news briefing. "The good news is we are not seeing a rise above the epidemic threshold in that system."
swine flu
Swine Flu: Canada has a fatality
Canada says woman with swine flu dies
May 8 12:52 PM US/Eastern
TORONTO (AP) - A Canadian health official says a woman with swine flu has died.
Alberta's chief medical officer says the woman from northern Alberta was in her 30s and did not travel recently. He says she also had other medical conditions.
Dr. Andre Corriveau made the announcement at a news conference Friday.
It would be the first death from swine flu in Canada. Mexico has confirmed 45 deaths and there have been two deaths in the United States.
flu
May 8 12:52 PM US/Eastern
TORONTO (AP) - A Canadian health official says a woman with swine flu has died.
Alberta's chief medical officer says the woman from northern Alberta was in her 30s and did not travel recently. He says she also had other medical conditions.
Dr. Andre Corriveau made the announcement at a news conference Friday.
It would be the first death from swine flu in Canada. Mexico has confirmed 45 deaths and there have been two deaths in the United States.
flu
Swine Flu: US has over 1600 cases
United States has 1,639 cases of new flu, CDC says
08 May 2009
CHICAGO, May 8 (Reuters) - The United States has 1,639 cases of the new H1N1 flu in 43 states, with two deaths, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on on Friday.
U.S. officials have said they expect the swine influenza virus to spread to all 50 states and to cause many infections ranging from mild to severe. The case count on Thursday was 896 but there has been a backlog of likely cases that need extra testing to confirm.
(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen, editing by Jackie Frank)
flu
08 May 2009
CHICAGO, May 8 (Reuters) - The United States has 1,639 cases of the new H1N1 flu in 43 states, with two deaths, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported on on Friday.
U.S. officials have said they expect the swine influenza virus to spread to all 50 states and to cause many infections ranging from mild to severe. The case count on Thursday was 896 but there has been a backlog of likely cases that need extra testing to confirm.
(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen, editing by Jackie Frank)
flu
Thursday, May 7, 2009
SWINE FLU: 1/3 of the Planet Will Get the Illness
WHO: Up to 2 billion people might get swine flu
May 7, 2009
By ELIANE ENGELER and ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS
GENEVA (AP) - The World Health Organization said Thursday that up to 2 billion people could be infected by swine flu if the current outbreak turns into a pandemic. The agency said a pandemic typically lasts two years.
WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda said the number wasn't a prediction, but that experience with flu pandemics showed one-third of the world's population gets infected.
"If we do move into a pandemic then our expectation is that we will see a large number of people infected worldwide," Fukuda said. "If you look at past pandemics, it would be a reasonable estimate to say perhaps a third of the world's population would get infected with this virus."
In Mexico, which has had the most cases, high schools and universities opened for the first time in two weeks as the country's top health official insisted the epidemic is on the decline. All students were checked for swine flu symptoms and some were sent home.
Fukuda said WHO is unable to know what the future holds and that it is impossible now to say whether the outbreak will turn into a pandemic or whether it would be a mild or severe strain of influenza.
Even with a mild flu, "from the global perspective there are still very large numbers of people who could develop pneumonia, require respirators, who could die," Fukuda said.
People react differently to the flu depending on their general state of health and other factors.
Some younger people in the Southern Hemisphere may be more vulnerable because of malnourishment, war, HIV infections and other factors, Fukuda said. This means a mild outbreak in wealthier countries can be "quite severe in its impact in the developing world," he said.
"We expect this kind of event to unfold over weeks and months. Pandemics don't occur in a couple of days. When we go back and we look at history, we're often looking at a one-year period. Really if you look over a two-period that is really the period in which you see an increase in the number of illnesses and deaths during a pandemic influenza."
History has been the spur to WHO to make sure the world is as prepared as possible for a pandemic, which would be recognized by a rise to phase 6 from the current phase 5 in the agency's alert scale. That would mean general spread of the disease in another region beyond North America, where the outbreak so far has been heaviest.
"I'm not quite sure we know if we're going to phase 6 or not, or when we would do so," Fukuda said. "It's really impossible for anybody to predict right now."
Mexican dance halls, movie theaters and bars were allowed to fully reopen Thursday after a five-day shutdown designed to curb the virus' spread. Businesses must screen for any sick customers and restaurant employees must wear surgical masks.
Fans can attend professional soccer matches this weekend after all were played in empty stadiums last weekend.
Mexico confirmed two more deaths, for a total of 44, while 1,160 people have been sickened, up 90 from Wednesday. Despite death tolls and confirmed caseloads that rise daily, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova insisted the epidemic is waning in Mexico.
The WHO said the number of confirmed swine flu cases around the world has surpassed 2,000.
This swine flu seems to have a long incubation period—five to seven days before people notice symptoms, according to Dr. Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now tracking the flu in Mexico City. That means the virus can keep being spread by people who won't know to stay home.
Mexico had mobilized teachers and parents to disinfect its schools before reopening. Primary schools reopen next week.
Laughing and joking, high school students gathered at the entrance of the National School of Graphic Arts in Mexico City, waiting to fill out forms that asked about their health.
Of 280 students entering the school in the first 20 minutes, two showed symptoms of swine flu, including coughing and nasal congestion, said assistant principal Ana Maria Calvo Vega. Their parents were notified and they won't be readmitted without a statement from a doctor saying they don't have the virus, she said.
Students at a Mexico City vocational high school were welcomed with a dollop of hand sanitizer and a surgical mask. Joyful to see each other again, students embraced and kissed—some through masks.
Parents expressed relief that their children, shuttered so long at home, could return to class. But they also worried that the virus could surge back once 40 million young people gather in groups again.
"My 17-year-old daughter is afraid. She knows she must go back but doesn't want to," said Silvia Mendez as she walked with her 4-year-old son, Enrique, in San Miguel Topilejo, a town perched in forested mountains near the capital.
Working parents have struggled to provide child care during the shutdown. It forced many to stay home from work, bring their youngsters to their jobs, or leave them at home.
Each school, Mexican officials said, had to be cleaned and inspected this week. Complicating the task: Many schools are primitive buildings with dirt floors and lack proper bathrooms. It was unclear how students attending those schools could adhere to the government's strict sanitary conditions.
The government promised detergent, chlorine, trash bags, anti-bacterial soap or antiseptic gel and face masks to state governments for delivery to public schools. But some local districts apparently didn't get the word.
U.S. health officials are no longer recommending that schools close because of suspected swine flu cases since the virus has turned out to be milder than initially feared. But many U.S. schools have done so anyway, including the school of a Texas teacher who died.
flu
May 7, 2009
By ELIANE ENGELER and ALEXANDER G. HIGGINS
GENEVA (AP) - The World Health Organization said Thursday that up to 2 billion people could be infected by swine flu if the current outbreak turns into a pandemic. The agency said a pandemic typically lasts two years.
WHO flu chief Keiji Fukuda said the number wasn't a prediction, but that experience with flu pandemics showed one-third of the world's population gets infected.
"If we do move into a pandemic then our expectation is that we will see a large number of people infected worldwide," Fukuda said. "If you look at past pandemics, it would be a reasonable estimate to say perhaps a third of the world's population would get infected with this virus."
In Mexico, which has had the most cases, high schools and universities opened for the first time in two weeks as the country's top health official insisted the epidemic is on the decline. All students were checked for swine flu symptoms and some were sent home.
Fukuda said WHO is unable to know what the future holds and that it is impossible now to say whether the outbreak will turn into a pandemic or whether it would be a mild or severe strain of influenza.
Even with a mild flu, "from the global perspective there are still very large numbers of people who could develop pneumonia, require respirators, who could die," Fukuda said.
People react differently to the flu depending on their general state of health and other factors.
Some younger people in the Southern Hemisphere may be more vulnerable because of malnourishment, war, HIV infections and other factors, Fukuda said. This means a mild outbreak in wealthier countries can be "quite severe in its impact in the developing world," he said.
"We expect this kind of event to unfold over weeks and months. Pandemics don't occur in a couple of days. When we go back and we look at history, we're often looking at a one-year period. Really if you look over a two-period that is really the period in which you see an increase in the number of illnesses and deaths during a pandemic influenza."
History has been the spur to WHO to make sure the world is as prepared as possible for a pandemic, which would be recognized by a rise to phase 6 from the current phase 5 in the agency's alert scale. That would mean general spread of the disease in another region beyond North America, where the outbreak so far has been heaviest.
"I'm not quite sure we know if we're going to phase 6 or not, or when we would do so," Fukuda said. "It's really impossible for anybody to predict right now."
Mexican dance halls, movie theaters and bars were allowed to fully reopen Thursday after a five-day shutdown designed to curb the virus' spread. Businesses must screen for any sick customers and restaurant employees must wear surgical masks.
Fans can attend professional soccer matches this weekend after all were played in empty stadiums last weekend.
Mexico confirmed two more deaths, for a total of 44, while 1,160 people have been sickened, up 90 from Wednesday. Despite death tolls and confirmed caseloads that rise daily, Health Secretary Jose Angel Cordova insisted the epidemic is waning in Mexico.
The WHO said the number of confirmed swine flu cases around the world has surpassed 2,000.
This swine flu seems to have a long incubation period—five to seven days before people notice symptoms, according to Dr. Marc-Alain Widdowson, a medical epidemiologist from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now tracking the flu in Mexico City. That means the virus can keep being spread by people who won't know to stay home.
Mexico had mobilized teachers and parents to disinfect its schools before reopening. Primary schools reopen next week.
Laughing and joking, high school students gathered at the entrance of the National School of Graphic Arts in Mexico City, waiting to fill out forms that asked about their health.
Of 280 students entering the school in the first 20 minutes, two showed symptoms of swine flu, including coughing and nasal congestion, said assistant principal Ana Maria Calvo Vega. Their parents were notified and they won't be readmitted without a statement from a doctor saying they don't have the virus, she said.
Students at a Mexico City vocational high school were welcomed with a dollop of hand sanitizer and a surgical mask. Joyful to see each other again, students embraced and kissed—some through masks.
Parents expressed relief that their children, shuttered so long at home, could return to class. But they also worried that the virus could surge back once 40 million young people gather in groups again.
"My 17-year-old daughter is afraid. She knows she must go back but doesn't want to," said Silvia Mendez as she walked with her 4-year-old son, Enrique, in San Miguel Topilejo, a town perched in forested mountains near the capital.
Working parents have struggled to provide child care during the shutdown. It forced many to stay home from work, bring their youngsters to their jobs, or leave them at home.
Each school, Mexican officials said, had to be cleaned and inspected this week. Complicating the task: Many schools are primitive buildings with dirt floors and lack proper bathrooms. It was unclear how students attending those schools could adhere to the government's strict sanitary conditions.
The government promised detergent, chlorine, trash bags, anti-bacterial soap or antiseptic gel and face masks to state governments for delivery to public schools. But some local districts apparently didn't get the word.
U.S. health officials are no longer recommending that schools close because of suspected swine flu cases since the virus has turned out to be milder than initially feared. But many U.S. schools have done so anyway, including the school of a Texas teacher who died.
flu
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Swine Flu - Nyet. Influenza A (H1N1) Da.
Liberals thought Bush couldn't speak. And honestly, look, the guy was from texas, drank in his younger years, too many drugs, a former governor, not very bright ... ok, we have solved the explanation. So then why is Biden such a joker? What's his excuse?
Biden steps on his tongue and requires the White House to modify and qualify everything he says, such as his statement on the Today Show about Influenza A(H1Ni)
"I would tell members of my family, and I have, I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not that it's going to Mexico, it's you're in a confined aircraft when one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. That's me. I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation suggesting they ride the subway."
So the White House had to qualify his answer:
"The advice he is giving family members is the same advice the administration is giving all Americans: That they should avoid unnecessary air travel to and from Mexico. If they are sick, they should avoid airplanes and other confined public spaces, such as subways."
But it was not so easy to modify the further comments, or make much sense of them -
"If you're out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes that's one thing. If you're in a closed aircraft or a closed container or closed car or closed classroom it's a different thing."
Translation - if someone sneezes in a classroom, plane, train, or automobile, you should get off or not get on before hand.
The White House added:
"Obviously, if anybody was unduly alarmed for whatever reason, we would apologize for that," Gibbs said.
Biden needs a red nose and big shoes.
Biden
Biden steps on his tongue and requires the White House to modify and qualify everything he says, such as his statement on the Today Show about Influenza A(H1Ni)
"I would tell members of my family, and I have, I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not that it's going to Mexico, it's you're in a confined aircraft when one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. That's me. I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation suggesting they ride the subway."
So the White House had to qualify his answer:
"The advice he is giving family members is the same advice the administration is giving all Americans: That they should avoid unnecessary air travel to and from Mexico. If they are sick, they should avoid airplanes and other confined public spaces, such as subways."
But it was not so easy to modify the further comments, or make much sense of them -
"If you're out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes that's one thing. If you're in a closed aircraft or a closed container or closed car or closed classroom it's a different thing."
Translation - if someone sneezes in a classroom, plane, train, or automobile, you should get off or not get on before hand.
The White House added:
"Obviously, if anybody was unduly alarmed for whatever reason, we would apologize for that," Gibbs said.
Biden needs a red nose and big shoes.
Biden
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