Sunday, April 1, 2012

While the World Withers

While the world teeters uncomfortably on a precipice - on one side a near all out genocide in various countries, and on the other tyrants controlling their people like cannibals control their lunch before preparation.

Mali has turned into a very unstable area.  A coup on March 22 has further exacerbated the problems.  In the north, rebels (read this as Islamic extremists - Tuareg) are advancing on government forces, and at this time Timbuktu has fallen to the rebels.  It seems the government forces are ill equipped and unable to stop the advance of the Islamic forces from the north headed by a former general as well as many soldiers from the Libyan military.

In Syria, apparently peace initiatives have been accepted by Assad.  The US has taken the firm step of declaring that Assad must go.  Hillary Clinton stated on April 1, that "the world will not waiver, Assad must go."   The US government has recognized the Syrian National Council, as representing all Syrians.  It also urged Syrian soldiers to disobey any orders to kill or injure civilians.

Assad cannot go so easily.  There is a great deal more at stake than simply Assad.  Iran is involved, al qaida is involved, the Baath party, the Assad family comes from a tribe that would not only lose power but would be punished by whatever came next.  There is still much bloodshed to follow.  Much.

And our Secretary of State says nothing when she opens her mouth except rubbish.  Those people who have been oppressed and arrested and those killed - the retribution without a stable government would be similar to what existed in Iraq (although not as extreme as between Shia and Sunni).

The winner for this will be al qaida (and I lump loosely all fundamental extremist Islamic groups into this label) and or hizbollah.  If hizbollah wins, Iran wins.  If al qaida wins - everyone loses.  The other option is for Assad to hold on to limited power and an elected parliament take actual power.  This option would forestall total bloodshed and Syria turning into an al qaida outpost or Iranian province.

In the Sudan, the juvenile attempt by the UN to create peace where none can exist.  Sudan had been in the grips of a genocide by the northern Islamic forces seeking to destroy and eliminate all non-muslim peoples.  It was, according to the UN, about water - which is not true.  Think OIL and you would be closer.  They had an election and separated.  There is the North (capital at Khartoum) controlled by Islamic forces, and the South (capital at Juba), controlled by Christian and animist forces.  According to those deluded enough to believe - everyone would get along famously after the division, but alas war continues and potential for a return to the genocide of the 90s and early part of the 21st century is near.

Yemen is another area that has not stabilized - kidnappings and assassinations are common.  Al qaida is responsible for both and in once case, a military base was attacked near a town called Zinijibar where 180 soldiers were killed and 70 abducted.    According to the UN, 3 million or so people are in need of aid.  This has the potential to turn into something much worse.

In Tunis, Islamic forces (again, al qaida as the label I use - Islamic extremist / fundamentalist groups) are pressuring the government through Islamic elected representatives to implement Islamic law and move toward a more centrally directed Islamic state.

In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood (al qaida by my labeling) has ... gasp ... broken a promise (which was never a promise anyway ... to not seek control / power by involvement in presidential elections.  Gasp ... who actually believed them when they initially lied.  They lied when it suited them, when the forces aligned against Mubarek and now that all of his power and those fingers on the buttons in Egypt are out of the way, the Islamists will seize control spreading al qaida throughout North Africa. and down the Eastern coast.

The rift between Islamists and secular parties in Egypt deepened. Five parties accused the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist al-Nour party of dominating the 100-member panel tasked with drafting a new constitution. Boycotting the panel they promised to establish a parallel body to produce their own document.

Friction between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces also increased, with the Brotherhood threatening to topple the current government and warning of a second revolution if the military fails to relinquish power.   The military held power to ensure control over the rising Islamic tide and to pacify European and Western concerns over Islamic influence.  If the military gave up control and the Muslim Brotherhood seized control, the assassination of President Sadat will be complete.  The peace between Israel and Egypt would end and the world would be left with an Islamic power in Egypt that has never held power in Egypt in over 11 centuries.

In Afghanistan, the calm has slowly returned after 17 people were murdered by a US soldier.  According to figures available, more than 15 NATO forces have been murdered by Afghan soldiers turning their guns on them.  The US paid off the victims and their families.  No one paid off the NATO soldiers murdered by Taliban/al qaida instructed/supported/directed Afghan soldiers.

In Ethiopia and Eritrea, problems mounted.  While it seems like it is a world away from the US and our lives here, this unstable area could turn into a conflagration we will be forced to intervene in as the problem is not limited to the two African countries.   Ethiopian troops attacked military bases in Eritrea, claiming they were being used to train insurgents operating in the Afar region. Eritrea accused Ethiopia  of trying to divert attention from the dispute over their common border, and called on the UN to take action against Ethiopia.

Civil war and unrest after the first round of presidential elections in Guinea-Bissau.  The current Prime Minister took the lead with 49 per cent of votes. His opponents denounced fraud in the vote, and vow to boycott the run-off, scheduled for 18 April.  There have been assassinations and kidnappings and just hours after polling closed, the former head of their spy police was assassinated.  Shortly thereafter, the ex-army Chief of Staff asked for refuge in the EU compound in Bissau. 

In China, the ever tolerant regime has arrested six people and shut 16 websites after rumours were spread that military vehicles were on the streets of Beijing.  Doubtful those six people will ever see daylight again and probably many more arrests will follow.  This is what the world could expect from a China in control.

Russia is another explosion waiting to happen.  Obama promising to give to Russia codes for the missile defense system that protects Eastern European countries.  Those eastern European countries are now realizing the Obama administration is tossing them under the Russian bear and they do not like it at all.  Our relations with several countries have already been damaged.  The Polish government has started started leaking details about CIA prisons to embarrass the Obama administration, and the Ukraine has turned from the West and is now trying to make friends with Russia.  It seems that Obama is turning over the Eastern European nations to Russia just as we did in 1945.   Those countries are not happy and they will demonstrate their displeasure with increased disdain for the US. 

This disdain will further embolden Obama - his mantra that we (the US) are not special will further complete this world view - no one will care what we think or say about anything, thereby weakening US foreign policy and world respect for the US.

It is amazing what damage he has done in his 3.5 years.  Doubled the debt, weakened alliances, destroyed several alliances, and divided the US even more.  More jobs have gone abroad, our economy is bankrupt and he plows ahead with programs that will ensure we remain bankrupt.  Meanwhile Islamic forces move across the North of Africa and through the Middle East, toppling governments and installing extremist Islamic regimes.  The Arab Spring that liberals made such a deal about, the spread of freedom and such across North Africa and into the Middle East was actually the Spring of Islamic resurgence, not freedom.  Anyone who believed otherwise was not fully aware of the details and the events on the ground.


Make Mine Freedom - 1948

American Form of Government

Who's on First? Certainly isn't the Euro.