One nuclear weapon is not enough. You need at least two, and an extra in case one is required for testing - 3 sounds about right.
Given the fact the IAEA has concluded Syria had nuclear components and was most likely working on a reactor (read: nuclear weapon). US Intelligence claimed Iran would not have a nuke until February 2009. They were wrong. It is likely that Iran will have three weapons much before the end of 2009, and Obama will have to take care of it - all that compromise and discussion and communication will do wonders ...
This is most likely what will happen. Secretary of State Clinton will call up the Swiss Ambassador to Iran, inform him she would like to speak to the Iranian counterpart - Manouchehr Mottaki. An hour later, a call will be put through to Clinton - the Swiss Ambassador will have a phone connection and will connect the two simultaneously. Clinton's conversation will be short and succinct - she would like to meet.
The meeting will occur in New York or London. It may or may not be made public - depending on whether she can create a reason for going abroad. The conversation will be short and within a short time, another call will be made - Mottaki will call Hillary at the Department of State informing her that his president would like to speak to her president about the issues discussed by she and Mottaki.
[Time Lapse of some days / more than 48 hours]
An arrangement is made - calls set up and Obama and Amindinejad are speaking. Obama will make small talk, and then get to the point. The US wants him to stop making weapons and agree to not making any more with talks on dismantling some, become a partner for peace in the Middle East, respect Iraq's borders, reign in Hizbollah and in return the US will accept Iran's regional presence and recognize the theocratic government of Iran.
Is that what we ultimately want or is that in our best interests? The US will look at it from a strictly traditional playing field - they have 1-3 bombs, if they use them, we send in 100 of our weapons and turn Iran into a parking lot, ergo they will never use them, it is suicide. Iran looks at it from win-win-win-win. They are recognized by the US, strengthening Hizbollah, they keep their weapons, weakening Saudi Arabia and Egypt, they become the de factor regional power - weakening Sunni states and strengthening Shia, they gain official recognition of their political and ideological system - they get to walk the highways of earth with their heads held high, and the US compromised and capitulated.
Note to Obama: The promises Iran made - they will not keep, but when confronted with their violations, they will say you made it up to attack the Iranian Republic ... no one will believe them, just as today no one believes them, but to the average Muslim, Iran will have stood up to the US and forced us to blink - they will win, we will lose, and you will have weakened the US in the eyes of the world.
Thank you very much.
US forecasts: Iran will have makings of 3 A-bombs by end of 2009
November 22, 2008
The most up-to-date intelligence predictions of US nuclear experts is that by the end of 2009, Iran will have stocked enough weapons-grade fuel to build three nuclear bombs.
The first will be ready for assembly by the time Barack Obama is sworn in as US president on January 20, 2009; the second shortly after Israel’s February 10, 2009 general election produces a new prime minister, and the third by the end of the year.
Iran may deny the latest IAEA conclusion that it has stockpiled 630 kg of low-enriched uranium, enough to upgrade a nuclear weapon. But Tehran’s limited on-and-off cooperation with the nuclear watchdog leaves it wide open to the suspicion of a secret location churning out enriched uranium far from the declared Natanz facility.
Iran
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