Monday, February 20, 2012

The Macro Viewpoint: US against the World

China's economy is pulling away, soon to over take the world, India will follow, and in 3rd place the US.  Even 3rd place isn't for sure, the EU may yet pull out of the downward spiral and pull even with the US.  Russia could pull a comeback from behind and be a 5th place pulling into 4th with its massive energy resources.

A fragmented United States - politically and economically, make it less likely the US will mount a serious challenge to even the EU.  As our economic might wanes, we lose the resources to fund a military and inevitable cuts to the military will occur leaving us tied for 1st or even in 2nd place.

All that may well be the dreams others have, their wish-list you might say, of what the world could look like.

And then there is the reality - it ain't so.

India with a dalit population of over 140,000,000 people, and another 100,000,000 million who are in backward or destitute castes, and that doesn't count the poorer castes who are not counted as backward or others.  The number is probably closer to 300 million.  A population the size the United States.  India does not have the infrastructure nor the apparatus to handle these numbers nor to raise any of them up.  A permanent 300 million under class in a country that services the US and Europe. 

India's climb up, is an allusion.  The idea of paying for oil with gold is a silly proposition  by silly people.  Imagine a train with the gold on it to pay for oil shipments!  And it will pass through ... Pakistan. 

China - a country with a population about the same, 300 million in poverty, with no hope of ever climbing out.  A country where the government tells the world what its growth rate is.  Their per capita will never be equal to the average American's income.  Never.  Their growth is in part built on another illusion - national productivity.  Parts of the Chinese state are productive, but the majority of it is not.  Their economy will falter, perhaps already has, but we won't know about it for at least a year or two. 

On paper China looks imposing, but it is only a paper tiger.

The EU - it is closer collapse than to barely treading water.  Signing on to that sinking ship has perils I doubt everyone is aware.  Europeans are not reproducing themselves.  Their overall population growth is below 1.8 and in 20 years their governments and systems will cease to exist as we know them.  In 10 years the euro will not exist and or not in its current form, its value will be minimal, and the European economy will be, as always, sluggish at best.

Russia - they produce nothing.  Their population makes nothing.  Their per capita is among the lowest in an industrialized state.  Their population are either leaving Russia, drunk, unemployed, or have ceased having children.  They have oil and gas - and when those resources are less needed, or they use up sizable quantities - Russia will descend back into the dark ages.

Africa will not, for several decades, even look like it could climb out of the hand basket.  Africa is closer to descending into the abyss of hell than it is to aspiring to a 3rd world status.

The United States - our economy is not as bad as those of the other countries.  Our population growth is moderate.  Our political will is linked to the current administration and with a new administration, we will again see a light and rise again to engage the world.  What we lack at this moment is the political will to fight, and that can be changed.

The prescription for the rest of the world is not so easy - easy to offer or to remedy.

the world

Make Mine Freedom - 1948

American Form of Government

Who's on First? Certainly isn't the Euro.