| 06CARACAS958 | 2006-04-07 20:08 | 2010-12-01 21:09 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Caracas |
VZCZCXRO6675
PP RUEHAG
DE RUEHCV #0958/01 0972019
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 072019Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY CARACAS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4003
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6275
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 5360
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 1877
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 0083
RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO PRIORITY 1952
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO PRIORITY 3674
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA PRIORITY 0655
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 1129
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO PRIORITY 3426
RUEHMU/AMEMBASSY MANAGUA PRIORITY 1124
RUEHDG/AMEMBASSY SANTO DOMINGO PRIORITY 0110
RUEHAO/AMCONSUL CURACAO PRIORITY 0723
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0090
RUEHMI/USOFFICE FRC FT LAUDERDALE PRIORITY 2980
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEHUB/USINT HAVANA PRIORITY 0622S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 05 CARACAS 000958
Going Nuclear?: Uranium Rumors and More
CARACAS 00000958 003.2 OF 005
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¶6. (C) As reported REF A, recent rumors that Venezuela is
trafficking in nuclear weapons and mining uranium for Iran
appear to be little more than the conspiracy-mongering by
Chavez adversaries. More disconcerting, however, are BRV and
GOI statements that suggest a long-term plan to develop
Venezuela's nuclear potential. Chavez mentioned on his
weekly "Alo Presidente" program in May 2005 the possibility
of asking help from "countries like Iran" in developing a
nuclear energy program. In February 2006, Iran publicly
affirmed its willingness to help Venezuela develop nuclear
energy, according to press reports. (See REF B for a
description of Venezuela's need for foreign expertise to
restart the fledgling nuclear program it shut down in the
1980s.) In March 2005, a memorandum of understanding signed
by the Iranian and Venezuelan Presidents established that
Iran would help Venezuela create a "National Geoscience
Database" that would contain a survey of the mineral deposits
throughout Venezuelan territory. Tomasso Tosini, geologist
and director of the Earth Sciences Institute of the Central
University of Venezuela, told us in June 2005 that creating
such a "basic geological map" of Venezuela would be the
logical first step to restarting a uranium program in
Venezuela.
¶5. (C) During a February 2006 meeting with poloff, UCV
professor and senior Accion Democratica party official Nelson
Lara claimed to have information substantiating Iran's
involvement in Venezuela's mineral sector. Lara said active
duty military officers in his classes told him that 20
Iranian officials were working in the Ministry of Basic
Industry and Mines. He said the Iranians did not answer to
any Venezuelan management. Lara speculated about their
involvement in uranium mining but said he did not know the
Iranians' role in the ministry. He added that 37 Iranians
were active in the Venezuelan Institute of Geology and Mines,
which Chavez launched in mid-2004.
¶6. (C) Venezuelan threats to take over property in areas
believed to have significant radioactive deposits are fueling
additional rumors that Venezuela is planning to mine
uranium. (Embassy note: Rumors that the BRV is planning to
mine these areas appear overblown. Factors besides uranium
are driving the government's targeting of land, although the
delays in expropriations reported in REF C could also reflect
BRV attempts to drag out negotiations for land until it can
gauge the true value of properties' mineral wealth.) In the
mid-1980s, the Ministry of Energy and Mines conducted
preliminary geochemical samplings that indicated the possible
presence of uranium deposits in at least two locations
currently eyed by the government:
-- The study revealed "anomalous areas to be assessed in
more detail" along the Caroni River in Bolivar State, where
the National Guard has begun evicting individual gold and
diamond prospectors reportedly to prevent them from damaging
the environment. In mid-March, National Guard attempts to
dislodge people from the Caroni basin ended in the deaths of
two miners. Demanding the withdrawal of soldiers stationed
in the Venezuelan military's fifth theater of operations
(TO5), miners responded by blocking roads and burning TO5
facilities.
-- The ministry report cited a section of Cojedes State as a
source of concentrated uranium. The area contains ranch and
nature preserve Hato Pinero, which the government has
targeted for possible expropriation. Concerned that the
ranch's alleged mineral wealth might attract BRV interest,
CARACAS 00000958 004.2 OF 005
ranch owner Jaime Perez Branger gave us a copy of an earlier
(1959) Ministry of Mines report calling Pinero's granite "the
most radioactive in the region." A footnote in the document,
however, noted that the counters used in the 1959 study would
not have detected uranium ore, one of many possible sources
of radioactivity.
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Defense
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¶7. (S//NF) Defense cooperation may also help explain the
expansion of the bilateral relationship (REFS D and E).
Indeed, an army official is scheduled to replace the current
Iranian Ambassador to Venezuela. According to sensitive
reporting, the Venezuelan Government is seeking lethal
armament from Iran such as rockets and other explosive
materiel. Venezuela has also sought from Iran parts for the
U.S. aircraft in its fleet that have been denied under the
Department's policy prohibiting the sale of components for
lethal munitions. Finally, sensitive reporting suggests that
Venezuela has sought help from Iran in establishing its
military reserve force. The Iranian popular mobilization
army (Basij) and the revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) invite
comparison with Venezuela's still evolving parallel military
structures: the reserves and the territorial guard.
Commander of the Basij Gen. Mohammed Hejazi visited Venezuela
in 2005, and an IRGC colonel has arrived here probably on
permanent assignment. A retired military officer citing
Venezuelan reservists told us March 24 that Iran had a small
number of soldiers in Venezuela training the reserves.
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Shared Culture?
---------------
¶8. (S//NF) Venezuela has a Muslim population of about
250,000 including some tens of thousands of Shia'. In
addition to its political activities, the nine
Iranians--including four career diplomats--posted to the
Iranian Embassy in Venezuela represent a small but growing
number of their citizens working in Venezuela in both the
formal and informal sectors. Cultural ties between the two
countries, however, do little to help explain the expanding
relationship. Most Venezuelans are unfamiliar with Muslims
and are unable to distinguish Iranians from Arabs or from
other Muslims. Indeed, as REF F states about Iran and Cuba,
Venezuelan and Iranian societies have little more in common
than their despotic leaders' antipathy toward the United
States.
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Comment
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¶9. (C) Venezuela's support for a country that has nuclear
ambitions, supports terrorism, and talks about wiping Israel
off the map is of grave concern. It also alarms
nations--such as France (REF G)--that have tended to make
light of our concerns about Venezuela's antidemocratic
tendencies and militarization. We can exploit this alarm.
Just as the shared animosity toward Washington driving the
Iran-Venezuela relationship leads to irrational commercial
endeavors, it is also likely to lead to additional diplomatic
gaffes and other missteps that reflect poorly on the BRV
among wary international observers.
¶10. (C) We should not dismiss the uranium rumors. At the
very least, it appears clear Venezuela plans to prospect for
CARACAS 00000958 005.2 OF 005
uranium with the intention of starting a nuclear program.
Like many BRV schemes, the plan may remain in bureaucratic
and financial limbo for years, and it may never be
fulfilled. Yet, in the event that its ends are not peaceful,
it warrants careful monitoring. All source information
indicates Iran needs foreign sources of uranium to maintain
its nuclear program. How Iran would benefit from any
Venezuelan plan to extract uranium will be an open question
as long as Venezuela's uranium deposits remain unverified.
BROWNFIELD
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