24 Jul 2009
Edmonton Sun
PETER ZIMONJIC
National Bureau
Recession over, Bank of Canada says
OTTAWA — The recession is over and the Canadian economy is on the long, slow road to recovery, says Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney.
“It’s early days,” said Carney. “Things are unfolding as we broadly expected them to ... but there are still risks to that recovery.”
Carney made the remarks yesterday after he delivered his quarterly update on the state of the Canadian economy. The assessment marked a swing back to positive news for the bank, which is once again bearing criticism for appearing overly optimistic.
Revised outlook
In January, Carney said the Canadian economy would shrink by 1.2% this year and grow by 3.8% in 2010. By April, however, he revised his outlook, saying the economy would shrink by 3.0% this year and grow by 2.5% next year.
Now Carney’s assessment has swung back to the positive with a prediction that the economy will shrink by 2.3% in 2009 and grow by 3.0% next year.
“The Bank of Canada’s initial readings were far too optimistic about how quickly the economy was going to be able to recover, they scaled back their views and now that we are seeing signs the worst is behind us, the bank is going back to being somewhat more optimistic,” said Craig Alexander, deputy chief economist for the Toronto-Dominion Bank.
‘No crystal ball’
Alexander is also predicting the economy will grow by 2010, but by less than 2.0%, rather than Carney’s 3.0%. Other economists say declaring the recession over may be premature.
“For Carney to stick his neck out and say the recession is essentially over and that we are going to have positive growth is going a little overboard,” said Jack Carr, an economist with the University of Toronto.
“Economists can’t predict the future, I have no crystal ball, neither does anybody else and neither does governor Carney,” said Carr.
Carney also told reporters that a struggling manufacturing sector and surging Canadian dollar will slow the recovery to a modest pace, essentially putting a “speed limit” on progress.
The risks of this recovery going off the rails, Carney said, are not something this country can control. Canada, he said, remains at the mercy of the global economy, especially the U.S. recovery.
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Canada is in recovery. The US should have been out of this mini recession, but for the recessional actions of a central government bent on spending trillions on programs that do not aid in any recovery, thus creating more debt and inflation.
Yet further evidence that everything from this point forward is Obama. No more Bush. It is all about Obama.
Change.
Obama