Remember - Obama told us about how he was changing things, rebuilding relations, creating a strong consensus to stop Iran.
That has fallen apart and in large part due to the ineptitude and naivete of Obama / and or those who were charged with defining policy.
Under Bush, the US was pushing for the Ukraine to be added in to NATO. The Ukraine wanted it - the military wanted it, the government wanted it, the people wanted it. Poland is another case - the US wanted Poland admitted, and Bush was pushing for their inclusion.
Russia on the other hand didn't want either to join NATO and it exerted the only force it could - cutting off fuel supplies to the Ukraine. Russia did this several times, a threat, or promise unstated - do not join NATO or worse will happen, the US cannot help you. Bush pushed for the missile defense system, and then under Obama everything changed.
Obama made it clear the US could not get involved in foreign issues, we stopped the missile defense system - a capitulation to Russian demands. But what did we get back from them? We were to get Russian support against Iran, and for a few moments it seemed like Russia would. In public statements Russia said it would consider all options, for five minutes, and then, with the missile defense system safely taken out of Eastern Europe, Russia reneged.
Still, NATO wanted the Ukraine, and until Obama made it clear that NATO would not be expanding - the Ukraine and Poland felt safe, and then the floor fell out - the US would not be a stand-up partner for them, they were alone.
In the Ukraine, the US pulled back on ther NATO deal in an effort to secure Russian assistance against Iran. Russia decided to push several pro-Russian candidates in the Ukraine into running for the presidency. Both candidates in the Feb. 6 runoff (opposition leader Viktor Yanukovich and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko) are effectively in favor of accommodation with Russia. Therefore, the American strategy in Russia just vaporized. The one thing the Russians wanted from the US was recognition of their sphere of influence, and Iran was the carrot they were using to achieve that end. Now, it doesn't matter - Russia has achieved what it wanted in the Ukraine without the US. The entire American diplomatic effort in Iran depends on what the Russians do now and the US strategy on Russia is in shambles.
Amazing.
Obama
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Monday, January 25, 2010
Friday, January 2, 2009
Ukraine and Russia: Who blinks first?
An issue worth watching!!
Russian animosity toward the Ukraine stretches back to the fall of the Soviet Union. Russian nuclear weapons were stored (many) in the Ukraine. Negotiations and discussions - Ukraine wanted something, wanted to be important. Russia lost that game.
Ukraine cozied up to the US. Their President likes the US, publicly spoke about joining NATO, using the US air defense system ... threats Russia cannot tolerate.
Russia has cut off gas supplies before ... and will do it again.
It is a gamble that may end up sorted out in conflict as the Ukraine cannot back down and neither can Russia. Too much is at stake, and the Ukraine does not want to be under the thumb of an oppressive regime in Russia again.
Russia prepares to halt gas supplies to Ukraine
Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:10pm GMT
* Ukraine's gas to be cut at 0700 GMT on Thursday
* Ukraine says it will maintain European supplies
* Europe has stocks to ride out crisis - analysts
By Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge
MOSCOW/KIEV, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Russia was preparing to turn off gas deliveries to neighbouring Ukraine on Thursday, raising the spectre of disruptions to European Union supplies.
European states are anxious to avoid a repeat of what happened in January 2006 when, during a similar row, Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine, causing a brief fall in gas supplies passing through Ukraine on the way to the rest of Europe.
Moscow says it will honour its contracts to supply European customers with gas, and these have enough reserves to manage without Russian supplies for days, but not weeks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also gave assurances to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that there would be no disruptions to supplies to the EU, the European Commission said in a brief statement.
Pipelines that cross Ukraine carry about one-fifth of the EU's gas needs. A new cut-off could tarnish Russia's reputation as a reliable energy supplier and further undermine Ukraine's crisis-battered economy.
Alexei Miller, head of Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM), said talks with Ukrainian officials had failed to settle a dispute over $2 billion in unpaid gas bills and the price at which Ukraine will buy Russian gas next year.
"From 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) on Jan. 1, Gazprom will completely, 100 percent, cease gas supplies to consumers in Ukraine," Miller told a news conference at the company's headquarters in Moscow late on Wednesday.
Miller, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said Ukraine should take full responsibility for causing the crisis.
Russia says the cut-off does not apply to shipments to Europe, but there could be a knock-on effect if it causes a drop in pressure in the transit pipelines or if Kiev halts flows to Europe to use them as a bargaining chip.
Germany's E.ON (EONGn.DE) and BASF (BASF.DE) and Italy's ENI (ENI.MI) are among the biggest customers for Russian gas.
However, EU states are less vulnerable to supply disruptions than they were three years ago.
Economic recession and a mild start to winter have reduced demand and left enough heating fuel in Western European storage sites to last a few days without much Russian gas, though analysts say a cut of more than a week would cause problems.
"Consumers (in Germany) need not worry," a spokesman for Germany's BDEW energy and water association was quoted as saying in Der Spiegel's online edition. "The tanks are quite full."
Countries in eastern and central Europe are likely to feel any disruption first because they are closer to the potential bottleneck in Ukraine.
Russia's 2006 dispute with Ukraine prompted calls for the EU to reduce reliance on Russian gas, but Gazprom forecasts that the EU will come to rely on Russia for as much as one-third of its gas by 2015, up from about a quarter now.
The reliability of energy supplies from Russia will top the agenda of EU ministers meeting in the Czech Republic next week.
Putin called Barroso on Wednesday, before the talks broke down, to explain possible consequences of the row for the 27-nation EU, Barroso's office said.
CUT-OFF LOOMS
Russia says the row is purely commercial, but it has in the past been accused of using energy to blackmail its neighbours. It has been fiercely critical of the drive by Ukraine's pro-Western leaders to join NATO.
Putin launched a scathing attack on Ukraine on Wednesday.
He said its leaders had snubbed an offer to buy gas in 2009 at a below-market price of $250 per 1,000 cubic metres, he alleged they would block Russian gas supplies to Europe, and said they had brought Ukraine to the verge of economic collapse.
"The situation in Ukraine is aggravated by the fact that a fight between different clans is having a negative impact on the economy," Putin said at a televised meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev.
That appeared to be a reference to the bitter rivalry between Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.
Some Western analysts say Moscow may be trying to undermine Yushchenko's presidency in favour of Tymoshenko, who it sees as a less awkward partner. Kremlin officials say there is no reason why Russia should subsidise Ukraine with cheap gas.
Both Moscow and Kiev have much at stake. Ukraine's hryvnia currency suffered steep falls last month despite a loan from the International Monetary Fund, and the row with Russia could further hurt investor confidence.
Russia -- already viewed with suspicion in the West after its war with Georgia in August -- has also been hit hard by the global crisis and does not want to forfeit its lucrative position as Europe's biggest gas supplier.
Ukraine
Russian animosity toward the Ukraine stretches back to the fall of the Soviet Union. Russian nuclear weapons were stored (many) in the Ukraine. Negotiations and discussions - Ukraine wanted something, wanted to be important. Russia lost that game.
Ukraine cozied up to the US. Their President likes the US, publicly spoke about joining NATO, using the US air defense system ... threats Russia cannot tolerate.
Russia has cut off gas supplies before ... and will do it again.
It is a gamble that may end up sorted out in conflict as the Ukraine cannot back down and neither can Russia. Too much is at stake, and the Ukraine does not want to be under the thumb of an oppressive regime in Russia again.
Russia prepares to halt gas supplies to Ukraine
Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:10pm GMT
* Ukraine's gas to be cut at 0700 GMT on Thursday
* Ukraine says it will maintain European supplies
* Europe has stocks to ride out crisis - analysts
By Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge
MOSCOW/KIEV, Jan 1 (Reuters) - Russia was preparing to turn off gas deliveries to neighbouring Ukraine on Thursday, raising the spectre of disruptions to European Union supplies.
European states are anxious to avoid a repeat of what happened in January 2006 when, during a similar row, Moscow cut off supplies to Ukraine, causing a brief fall in gas supplies passing through Ukraine on the way to the rest of Europe.
Moscow says it will honour its contracts to supply European customers with gas, and these have enough reserves to manage without Russian supplies for days, but not weeks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also gave assurances to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso that there would be no disruptions to supplies to the EU, the European Commission said in a brief statement.
Pipelines that cross Ukraine carry about one-fifth of the EU's gas needs. A new cut-off could tarnish Russia's reputation as a reliable energy supplier and further undermine Ukraine's crisis-battered economy.
Alexei Miller, head of Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM), said talks with Ukrainian officials had failed to settle a dispute over $2 billion in unpaid gas bills and the price at which Ukraine will buy Russian gas next year.
"From 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) on Jan. 1, Gazprom will completely, 100 percent, cease gas supplies to consumers in Ukraine," Miller told a news conference at the company's headquarters in Moscow late on Wednesday.
Miller, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said Ukraine should take full responsibility for causing the crisis.
Russia says the cut-off does not apply to shipments to Europe, but there could be a knock-on effect if it causes a drop in pressure in the transit pipelines or if Kiev halts flows to Europe to use them as a bargaining chip.
Germany's E.ON (EONGn.DE) and BASF (BASF.DE) and Italy's ENI (ENI.MI) are among the biggest customers for Russian gas.
However, EU states are less vulnerable to supply disruptions than they were three years ago.
Economic recession and a mild start to winter have reduced demand and left enough heating fuel in Western European storage sites to last a few days without much Russian gas, though analysts say a cut of more than a week would cause problems.
"Consumers (in Germany) need not worry," a spokesman for Germany's BDEW energy and water association was quoted as saying in Der Spiegel's online edition. "The tanks are quite full."
Countries in eastern and central Europe are likely to feel any disruption first because they are closer to the potential bottleneck in Ukraine.
Russia's 2006 dispute with Ukraine prompted calls for the EU to reduce reliance on Russian gas, but Gazprom forecasts that the EU will come to rely on Russia for as much as one-third of its gas by 2015, up from about a quarter now.
The reliability of energy supplies from Russia will top the agenda of EU ministers meeting in the Czech Republic next week.
Putin called Barroso on Wednesday, before the talks broke down, to explain possible consequences of the row for the 27-nation EU, Barroso's office said.
CUT-OFF LOOMS
Russia says the row is purely commercial, but it has in the past been accused of using energy to blackmail its neighbours. It has been fiercely critical of the drive by Ukraine's pro-Western leaders to join NATO.
Putin launched a scathing attack on Ukraine on Wednesday.
He said its leaders had snubbed an offer to buy gas in 2009 at a below-market price of $250 per 1,000 cubic metres, he alleged they would block Russian gas supplies to Europe, and said they had brought Ukraine to the verge of economic collapse.
"The situation in Ukraine is aggravated by the fact that a fight between different clans is having a negative impact on the economy," Putin said at a televised meeting with President Dmitry Medvedev.
That appeared to be a reference to the bitter rivalry between Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.
Some Western analysts say Moscow may be trying to undermine Yushchenko's presidency in favour of Tymoshenko, who it sees as a less awkward partner. Kremlin officials say there is no reason why Russia should subsidise Ukraine with cheap gas.
Both Moscow and Kiev have much at stake. Ukraine's hryvnia currency suffered steep falls last month despite a loan from the International Monetary Fund, and the row with Russia could further hurt investor confidence.
Russia -- already viewed with suspicion in the West after its war with Georgia in August -- has also been hit hard by the global crisis and does not want to forfeit its lucrative position as Europe's biggest gas supplier.
Ukraine
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