They sure do breed strange folk up in the north. Must be all that snow you have to shovel and figure out how to get rid of - maybe bag it up in trash bags and send it to the dump. Must be difficult, and Diane Francis must have been hit one too many times by falling ice, or maybe kicked a few too many times by Moose.
8 Dec 2009
National Post
DIANE FR ANCIS
The real inconvenient truth: The whole world needs to adopt China’s one-child policy
The “inconvenient truth” overhanging the UN’s Copenhagen conference is not that the climate is warming or cooling, but that humans are overpopulating the world.
A planetary law, such as China’s one-child policy, is the only way to reverse the disastrous global birthrate currently, which is one million births every four days.
The world’s other species, vegetation, resources, oceans, arable land, water supplies and atmosphere are being destroyed and pushed out of existence as a result of humanity’s soaring reproduction rate.
Ironically, China, despite its dirty coal plants, is the world’s leader in terms of fashioning policy to combat environmental degradation, thanks to its one-child-only edict.
The intelligence behind this is the following:
If only one child per female was born as of now, the world’s population would drop from its current 6.5 billion to 5.5 billion by 2050, according to a study done for scientific academy Vienna Institute of Demography.
By 2075, there would be 3.43 billion humans on the planet. This would have immediate positive effects on the world’s forests, other species, the oceans, atmospheric quality and living standards.
Doing nothing, by contrast, will result in an unsustainable population of nine billion by 2050.
Humans are the only rational animals but have yet to prove it. Medical and other scientific advances have benefited by delivering lower infant mortality rates as well as longevity. Both are welcome, but humankind has not yet recalibrated its behavior to account for the fact that the world can only accommodate so many people, especially if billions get indoor plumbing and cars.
The fix is simple. It’s dramatic. And yet the world’s leaders don’t even have this on their agenda in Copenhagen. Instead there will be photo ops, posturing, optics, blah-blah-blah about climate science and climate fraud, announcements of giant wind farms, then cap-and-trade subsidies.
None will work unless a China one-child policy is imposed. Unfortunately, there are powerful opponents. Leaders of the world’s big fundamentalist religions preach in favor of procreation and fiercely oppose birth control. And most political leaders in emerging economies perpetuate a disastrous Catch-22: Many children (i.e. sons) stave off hardship in the absence of a social safety net or economic development, which, in turn, prevents protections or development.
China has proven that birth restriction is smart policy. Its middle class grows, all its citizens have housing, health care, education and food, and the one out of five human beings who live there are not overpopulating the planet.
For those who balk at the notion that governments should control family sizes, just wait until the growing human population turns twice as much pastureland into desert as is now the case, or when the Amazon is gone, the elephants disappear for good and wars erupt over water, scarce resources and spatial needs.
The point is that Copenhagen’s talking points are beside the point.
The only fix is if all countries drastically reduce their populations, clean up their messes and impose mandatory conservation measures.
******************************
By the way, China's policy hasn't proven anything except they are now short of women and will be for another twenty years. Great for all the guys.
PRB.org
Good site, lots of data to disprove this woman's nonsense.
Check out the TFR.
Then, before wailing away, consider what it is you would want to leave your great grandchildren if you could. They type of country, world, future ... including political, social, cultural values.
Then look at the TFR and start breeding like rabbits!
breeding
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Showing posts with label population. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Friday, October 23, 2009
How Many of Us Are there or Have There Ever Been
Once again, another article from FOCUS magazine.
September 2002
Page 56
Is it true that more humans are alive now than have ever lived?
Robert Matthews, physicist from Aston university.
There are currently (in 2002) 6,100 million people living on planet Earth; almost four times the number just a century ago in 1900, and 12 times the estimated figure for 1650. Such a dramatic increase does seem to suggest that today's population could indeed exceed the total number of humans who have ever lived. But this ignores the slow but steady accumulation of numbers over the millenia. By analysing populations and their growth rates using historical data, demographers have come up with estimates for the total number of humans who have ever lived ranging from 60 to 100 billion. So, roughly speaking, even today's population represents only 5-10% of all the lives that have been lived in history.
people
September 2002
Page 56
Is it true that more humans are alive now than have ever lived?
Robert Matthews, physicist from Aston university.
There are currently (in 2002) 6,100 million people living on planet Earth; almost four times the number just a century ago in 1900, and 12 times the estimated figure for 1650. Such a dramatic increase does seem to suggest that today's population could indeed exceed the total number of humans who have ever lived. But this ignores the slow but steady accumulation of numbers over the millenia. By analysing populations and their growth rates using historical data, demographers have come up with estimates for the total number of humans who have ever lived ranging from 60 to 100 billion. So, roughly speaking, even today's population represents only 5-10% of all the lives that have been lived in history.
people
Sunday, September 27, 2009
California Population: Take Note
California also saw a decline in the number of people coming to partake of its sand and sea. A mere 1.3% of California residents moved in from out of state in 2008. That's off from 1.4% in 2007.
For years, Americans have been fleeing the Golden State. The population kept growing only because of foreign immigration and births. All through the 2000s there has been a net loss in domestic migration, with 800,000 more Americans leaving than moving in during the three years ended in 2007. As it became more difficult to sell homes, that out-flow eased. That, combined with the newcomers, meant the population fell by only 144,000 in 2008.
population
For years, Americans have been fleeing the Golden State. The population kept growing only because of foreign immigration and births. All through the 2000s there has been a net loss in domestic migration, with 800,000 more Americans leaving than moving in during the three years ended in 2007. As it became more difficult to sell homes, that out-flow eased. That, combined with the newcomers, meant the population fell by only 144,000 in 2008.
population
Monday, January 12, 2009
The California Dream
Go East, young man? Californians look for the exit
By MICHAEL R. BLOOD, Associated Press Writer
Mon Jan 12, 2009
LOS ANGELES – Mike Reilly spent his lifetime chasing the California dream. This year he's going to look for it in Colorado.
With a house purchase near Denver in the works, the 38-year-old engineering contractor plans to move his family 1,200 miles away from his home state's lemon groves, sunshine and beaches.
For him, years of rising taxes, dead-end schools, unchecked illegal immigration and clogged traffic have robbed the Golden State of its allure.
Is there something left of the California dream?
"If you are a Hollywood actor," Reilly says, "but not for us."
Since the days of the Gold Rush, California has represented the Promised Land, an image celebrated in the songs of the Beach Boys and embodied by Silicon Valley's instant millionaires and the young men and women who achieve stardom in Hollywood.
But for many California families last year, tomorrow started somewhere else.
The number of people leaving California for another state outstripped the number moving in from another state during the year ending on July 1, 2008. California lost a net total of 144,000 people during that period — more than any other state, according to census estimates. That is about equal to the population of Syracuse, N.Y.
The state with the next-highest net loss through migration between states was New York, which lost just over 126,000 residents.
California's loss is extremely small in a state of 38 million. And, in fact, the state's population continues to increase overall because of births and immigration, legal and illegal. But it is the fourth consecutive year that more residents decamped from California for other states than arrived here from within the U.S.
A losing streak that long hasn't happened in California since the recession of the early 1990s, when departures outstripped arrivals from other states by 362,000 in 1994 alone.
In part because of the boom in population in other Western states, California could lose a congressional seat for the first time in its history.
Why are so many looking for an exit?
Among other things: California's unemployment rate hit 8.4 percent in November, the third-highest in the nation, and it is expected to get worse. A record 236,000 foreclosures are projected for 2008, more than the prior nine years combined, according to research firm MDA DataQuick. Personal income was about flat last year.
With state government facing a $41.6 billion budget hole over 18 months, residents are bracing for higher taxes, cuts in education and postponed tax rebates. A multibillion-dollar plan to remake downtown Los Angeles has stalled, and office vacancy rates there and in San Diego and San Jose surpass the 10.2 percent national average.
Median housing prices have nose-dived one-third from a 2006 peak, but many homes are still out of reach for middle-class families. Some small towns are on the brink of bankruptcy.
Normally recession-proof Hollywood has been hit by layoffs.
"You see wages go down and the cost of living go up," Reilly says. His property taxes will be $1,300 in Colorado, down from $4,300 on his three-bedroom house in Nipomo, about 80 miles up the coast from Santa Barbara.
California's obituary has been written before — "California: The Endangered Dream" was the title of a 1991 Time magazine cover story. The Golden State and its huge economy — by itself, the eighth-largest in the world — have shown resilience, weathering the aerospace bust, the dot-com crash and an energy crunch in recent years.
But this time, the news just keeps getting worse.
A state board halted lending for about 2,000 public works projects in California worth more than $16 billion because the state could not afford them. A report by Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., last month said the state lost 100,000 jobs in the last year and the erosion of home prices eliminated over $1 trillion in wealth.
"I don't think the California dream, per se, is over. It has become and will continue to become grittier," says New America Foundation senior fellow Gregory Rodriguez. "Now, perhaps, we have to reassess the California of our imagination."
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger is among those who say the state needs to create itself anew, rebuilding roads, schools and transit.
"We've lived off the investments our parents made in the '50s and '60s for a long time," says Tim Hodson, director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento. "We're somewhat in the position of a Rust Belt state in the 1970s."
Financial adviser Barry Hartz lived in California for 60 years and once ran for state Assembly before relocating with his wife last year to Colorado Springs, Colo., where his son's family had moved.
"The saddest thing I saw was the escalation of home prices to the point our kids, when they got married, could not live in the community where they lived and grew up," Hartz says. "Some people call that progress."
California
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Oh Canada - What do you do now?
In most areas, we set the trends. In this particular and unique area, Canada will set the trend.
Proudfoot and the media missed the real issue. Instead, the focused on the effect, not the cause - and dealt with short term, not long term.
Serious implications.
3 Jan 2009
The Vancouver Sun
BY SHANNON PROUDFOOT
Canwest News Service
Canada’s baby bust
A dearth of children in the country is having DEMOGRAPHICS I a ripple effect throughout the economy, from toy stores to universities.
An unprecedented decline in the number of children in Canada is creating ripples from toy-store aisles to school hallways and hockey arenas, forcing a new approach to a shrinking child population.
“ I often say what happened to elementary schools yesterday happens to high schools today and happens to college and university enrolments tomorrow,” says David Foot, a University of Toronto economist and author of Boom, Bust & Echo. “ It doesn’t mean there’s no market there, but it’s not a growth market, so if you’re going to enter that market you’ve got to have very realistic assumptions.”
Canada’s under-15 population fell by a l m o s t 14, 6 ,0 0 0, or 2. 5 p e r ce n t , between 2001 and 2006, the latest census figures show, and is now 5.6 million.
Just after the height of the baby boom in 1961, more than one-third of the Canadian population ( 34 per cent) was under 15 years old, but by 2006, declining birth rates meant less than 18 per cent fit into that youthful age group. Statistics Canada projects the 65-plus population could outnumber children within 10 years.
“ We’ve rapidly come to the realization that we’ve got a decreasing customer base out there,” says Glen McCurdie, senior director of member services for Hockey Canada, the governing body for amateur hockey. “ Right now, we feel if we are able to maintain our registrations at the current level, then we’re doing a hell of a job.”
So far they’ve managed to do so, with registration for players aged four through the upper teens fluctuating between about 532,000 and 558,000 since the 2002-03 season. The organization has been recruiting girls and immigrants less familiar with the game to bolster its ranks, says McCurdie.
“ I think we’ve been victims of our success there,” he says. “ I think as Canada’s national sport, we just open the doors and accept people that show up. Our attitude is that’s not necessarily good enough anymore and we need to find ways to change that.”
Swimming Canada has enjoyed a 10per-cent boost in young competitive swimmers this year after flatlining at about 28,000 since 2000, says communications director Martin Richard, but he attributes that to post-Olympic excitement and healthy lifestyle choices offsetting the population shift.
But organizers of amateur swimming, soccer and hockey all say adult players are becoming an increasingly important part of their membership and growth strategy in Canada.
“ We’re looking at the writing on the wall with respect to demographics and we need to expand our boundaries beyond 19-and 20-year-olds and look at adults playing the game as well,” says McCurdie.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the declining population of children is unevenly distributed, says Shaune MacKinlay of the Halifax Regional School Board.
Schools in rapidly growing suburbs are bursting at the seams, she says, while some city-core schools languish half-empty and short on funding to replace aging structures built during the baby boom.
“ It creates a bit of a conundrum for us,” she says. “ While we’re faced with declining enrolments over all, we still have pressure-points within our school system.”
There are 52,107 students enrolled in Halifax this school year, down 548 from the year before.
Victoria-area schools have 3,260 fewer students this school year than they did a decade ago, falling almost 15 per cent to 19,052.
Enrolment in Montreal French-language high schools has virtually flatlined at about 26,000 for the last seven years, while the number of elementary school students has declined by almost 4,000, to 36,685 last school year.
Toronto District School Board — the largest in the country — currently has 239,692 students, a decline of 30,910, or 11 per cent, since 2002-2003.
Parents may see smaller class sizes as an advantage, MacKinlay says, but declining enrolment forces boards to stretch resources and populationbased funding further.
One potential solution is embodied in Citadel high school, a cutting-edge, environmentally sustainable school that opened in September 2007 to more efficiently house the students of two old schools with dwindling populations, she says. Located in the heart of Halifax, the school has become a point of pride for the city and a “ flagship” for the school board, MacKinlay said.
At the level of post-secondary education, Foot at U of T says institutions are ignoring demographic realities and planning to expand just when the enrollment bubble is about to “ implode.”
Universities could adjust by marketing themselves to international students, he says.
And with the under-15 crowd dwindling, Foot says the red-hot teen popculture market is about to take a nosedive as well. He says toy companies could start producing more sophisticated teen-friendly toys or pricier collectors’ items aimed at adults.
With toys marketed toward a variety of age groups and classic board games that appeal both to nostalgic parents and their video game-accustomed offspring, Hasbro is diversifying beyond the children’s market, according to Sandy Sinclair, senior vice-president of marketing for the toy giant’s Canadian division. There’s also a significant and growing market for nostalgic and collectible toys for grown-up kids, she says, including GI Joe, Star Wars, My Little Pony and Transformers.
“ Adult collectors who may have more income at their disposal may buy two versions of that same character … to have one in the package and one out of the package, perhaps trade one,” she says of the older toy audience. “ They’re usually massive collections.”
“ They have to reinvent themselves or recalibrate a lot,” Foot says. “ And the smart ones can take advantage of the boomers because they’ll pay for quality and service now.”
Oh Canada
Proudfoot and the media missed the real issue. Instead, the focused on the effect, not the cause - and dealt with short term, not long term.
Serious implications.
3 Jan 2009
The Vancouver Sun
BY SHANNON PROUDFOOT
Canwest News Service
Canada’s baby bust
A dearth of children in the country is having DEMOGRAPHICS I a ripple effect throughout the economy, from toy stores to universities.
An unprecedented decline in the number of children in Canada is creating ripples from toy-store aisles to school hallways and hockey arenas, forcing a new approach to a shrinking child population.
“ I often say what happened to elementary schools yesterday happens to high schools today and happens to college and university enrolments tomorrow,” says David Foot, a University of Toronto economist and author of Boom, Bust & Echo. “ It doesn’t mean there’s no market there, but it’s not a growth market, so if you’re going to enter that market you’ve got to have very realistic assumptions.”
Canada’s under-15 population fell by a l m o s t 14, 6 ,0 0 0, or 2. 5 p e r ce n t , between 2001 and 2006, the latest census figures show, and is now 5.6 million.
Just after the height of the baby boom in 1961, more than one-third of the Canadian population ( 34 per cent) was under 15 years old, but by 2006, declining birth rates meant less than 18 per cent fit into that youthful age group. Statistics Canada projects the 65-plus population could outnumber children within 10 years.
“ We’ve rapidly come to the realization that we’ve got a decreasing customer base out there,” says Glen McCurdie, senior director of member services for Hockey Canada, the governing body for amateur hockey. “ Right now, we feel if we are able to maintain our registrations at the current level, then we’re doing a hell of a job.”
So far they’ve managed to do so, with registration for players aged four through the upper teens fluctuating between about 532,000 and 558,000 since the 2002-03 season. The organization has been recruiting girls and immigrants less familiar with the game to bolster its ranks, says McCurdie.
“ I think we’ve been victims of our success there,” he says. “ I think as Canada’s national sport, we just open the doors and accept people that show up. Our attitude is that’s not necessarily good enough anymore and we need to find ways to change that.”
Swimming Canada has enjoyed a 10per-cent boost in young competitive swimmers this year after flatlining at about 28,000 since 2000, says communications director Martin Richard, but he attributes that to post-Olympic excitement and healthy lifestyle choices offsetting the population shift.
But organizers of amateur swimming, soccer and hockey all say adult players are becoming an increasingly important part of their membership and growth strategy in Canada.
“ We’re looking at the writing on the wall with respect to demographics and we need to expand our boundaries beyond 19-and 20-year-olds and look at adults playing the game as well,” says McCurdie.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the declining population of children is unevenly distributed, says Shaune MacKinlay of the Halifax Regional School Board.
Schools in rapidly growing suburbs are bursting at the seams, she says, while some city-core schools languish half-empty and short on funding to replace aging structures built during the baby boom.
“ It creates a bit of a conundrum for us,” she says. “ While we’re faced with declining enrolments over all, we still have pressure-points within our school system.”
There are 52,107 students enrolled in Halifax this school year, down 548 from the year before.
Victoria-area schools have 3,260 fewer students this school year than they did a decade ago, falling almost 15 per cent to 19,052.
Enrolment in Montreal French-language high schools has virtually flatlined at about 26,000 for the last seven years, while the number of elementary school students has declined by almost 4,000, to 36,685 last school year.
Toronto District School Board — the largest in the country — currently has 239,692 students, a decline of 30,910, or 11 per cent, since 2002-2003.
Parents may see smaller class sizes as an advantage, MacKinlay says, but declining enrolment forces boards to stretch resources and populationbased funding further.
One potential solution is embodied in Citadel high school, a cutting-edge, environmentally sustainable school that opened in September 2007 to more efficiently house the students of two old schools with dwindling populations, she says. Located in the heart of Halifax, the school has become a point of pride for the city and a “ flagship” for the school board, MacKinlay said.
At the level of post-secondary education, Foot at U of T says institutions are ignoring demographic realities and planning to expand just when the enrollment bubble is about to “ implode.”
Universities could adjust by marketing themselves to international students, he says.
And with the under-15 crowd dwindling, Foot says the red-hot teen popculture market is about to take a nosedive as well. He says toy companies could start producing more sophisticated teen-friendly toys or pricier collectors’ items aimed at adults.
With toys marketed toward a variety of age groups and classic board games that appeal both to nostalgic parents and their video game-accustomed offspring, Hasbro is diversifying beyond the children’s market, according to Sandy Sinclair, senior vice-president of marketing for the toy giant’s Canadian division. There’s also a significant and growing market for nostalgic and collectible toys for grown-up kids, she says, including GI Joe, Star Wars, My Little Pony and Transformers.
“ Adult collectors who may have more income at their disposal may buy two versions of that same character … to have one in the package and one out of the package, perhaps trade one,” she says of the older toy audience. “ They’re usually massive collections.”
“ They have to reinvent themselves or recalibrate a lot,” Foot says. “ And the smart ones can take advantage of the boomers because they’ll pay for quality and service now.”
Oh Canada
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Playing with numbers
In 1960, 40 million Americans lived under the poverty line.
In 1999, 21 million lived in poverty.
In 2007, 37 million were living in poverty.
In August 2008, 37.3 million lived below the poverty line (12.5%)
First, look at the 1999 to 2007 numbers.
In 1999, 272 million people were living in the US. In 2007, 301 million.
In 1960, the illegal population in the US was negligible. Today, over 12 million are in the US illegally and many of them are among those living in poverty.
In 1960, the population of the US was about 178 million.
Numbers are important, but understanding context and perspective, is even more useful.
Numbers
In 1999, 21 million lived in poverty.
In 2007, 37 million were living in poverty.
In August 2008, 37.3 million lived below the poverty line (12.5%)
First, look at the 1999 to 2007 numbers.
In 1999, 272 million people were living in the US. In 2007, 301 million.
In 1960, the illegal population in the US was negligible. Today, over 12 million are in the US illegally and many of them are among those living in poverty.
In 1960, the population of the US was about 178 million.
Numbers are important, but understanding context and perspective, is even more useful.
Numbers
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
Europe: Population Issues
Europe of the future: Germany shrinks, France grows, but UK population booms
Ian Traynor in Brussels
The Guardian,
Wednesday August 27 2008
Britain will overtake Germany and France to become the biggest country in the EU in 50 years' time, according to population projections unveiled yesterday. A survey of demographic trends finds Britain's positive birth rate contrasting strongly with most other large countries in Europe.
The impact of population shrinkage, coupled with the ageing of key European societies, spells big problems for pensions, health and welfare systems across much of the union, says the report, published by Eurostat, the statistical service of the European commission.
But Britain, it says, is likely to suffer less because of its strong population growth and the younger average age of British society.
Immigration is singled out as the sole mitigating factor, seen as crucial to maintaining population growth. But the report says this probably will not be enough to reverse the trend of population decline in many countries.
The survey predicts that Britain's population by 2060 will increase by 25% from the current figure of just over 61 million to almost 77 million.
Germany is the biggest country in the EU, with more than 82 million people, but it is likely to shed almost 12 million by 2060, says the report. The widely praised family policies and support of working women in France means that the French population will rise to almost 72 million by 2060.
With the British birth rate now at its highest in a generation - 1.91 children per woman according to the Office for National Statistics last week - the UK has less to fear about any "generation wars" brought on by the "demographic timebomb" of ageing and shrinking populations where those in work cannot support the pension needs of retired citizens.
"With climate change and globalisation the ageing of the population is one of the major challenges Europe must face," said Amelia Torres, a commission spokeswoman.
Of the biggest six EU countries (Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain and Poland) Britain has by far the greatest birth rates. Only Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Ireland are growing faster than the UK.
The average age of Europeans is now just over 40; this will be 48 by 2060. The average age for Britons is 39 and will be 42 in 2060 - the lowest age in Europe with the exception of Luxembourg.
The EU's population now stands at 495 million and is projected to rise to more than 520 million by 2035, before falling to 505 million by 2060.
"From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and population growth due to natural increase, would cease," says the survey, assuming a net migration inflow to the EU of almost 60 million over the next 50 years. "Positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change."
Across the EU's 27 countries there are now four people of working age for every person over 65, but by 2060 that ratio will be 2:1, causing stress on welfare and pension systems. Torres said pension and health systems had to be reformed.
Fourteen of the 27 countries are projected to have smaller populations in 50 years' time. The survey reveals striking contrasts, between eastern and western Europe and between the north and south, with Scandinavia and Britain comparing positively with Mediterranean Europe, while central and eastern Europe see chronic population depression.
The number of people aged 65 or more broadly doubles across the EU, with Britons of retirement age being almost 19 million. While the number of Germans of working age is predicted to decline from 54 million now to 39 million by 2060, in Britain the figure rises by more than 4 million.
Across the EU, the number of children under 14 will drop from 77 million to 71 million, but in the UK the number rises by 2 million. In Britain the proportion of over-80s will double to 9% while across the EU it will triple to 12%.
The UK population is increasing at a rate of around 1,000 people a day according to figures released by the National Statistics agency earlier this month.
Children aged under 16 represent around one in five of the total population, around the same proportion as those of retirement age. UK fertility rates dropped steadily during the 1980s and 1990s but began to increase again from 2003.
People power
By 2060, the population of major Europen countries will be:
UK 77 million
France 72
Germany 71
Italy 59
Spain 52
Increases in population by 2060:
Cyprus 66%
Ireland 53
Luxembourg 52
UK 25
Decreases in population by 2060:
Bulgaria 28%
Latvia 26
Lithuania 24
Romania 21
The strongly Roman Catholic countries of Europe are having fewer babies. The Italian population will stay the same over the next 50 years, while Poland's and Lithuania's will shrink considerably. Spain's population is forecast to increase by 6 million. Life expectancy is also rising. In Ireland, women will live to 89 and men to 85. Almost one in three Europeans will be of pensionable age if 65 remains the threshold.
*************************************************
The populations will decrease or remain steady ... AND THAT with immigration. Imagine without the immigration - how dramatic the downturn would be!
The downside to the immigration is - where are the immigrants coming from, who is having more children, and what change will that bring to all of Europe!!
European issues
Ian Traynor in Brussels
The Guardian,
Wednesday August 27 2008
Britain will overtake Germany and France to become the biggest country in the EU in 50 years' time, according to population projections unveiled yesterday. A survey of demographic trends finds Britain's positive birth rate contrasting strongly with most other large countries in Europe.
The impact of population shrinkage, coupled with the ageing of key European societies, spells big problems for pensions, health and welfare systems across much of the union, says the report, published by Eurostat, the statistical service of the European commission.
But Britain, it says, is likely to suffer less because of its strong population growth and the younger average age of British society.
Immigration is singled out as the sole mitigating factor, seen as crucial to maintaining population growth. But the report says this probably will not be enough to reverse the trend of population decline in many countries.
The survey predicts that Britain's population by 2060 will increase by 25% from the current figure of just over 61 million to almost 77 million.
Germany is the biggest country in the EU, with more than 82 million people, but it is likely to shed almost 12 million by 2060, says the report. The widely praised family policies and support of working women in France means that the French population will rise to almost 72 million by 2060.
With the British birth rate now at its highest in a generation - 1.91 children per woman according to the Office for National Statistics last week - the UK has less to fear about any "generation wars" brought on by the "demographic timebomb" of ageing and shrinking populations where those in work cannot support the pension needs of retired citizens.
"With climate change and globalisation the ageing of the population is one of the major challenges Europe must face," said Amelia Torres, a commission spokeswoman.
Of the biggest six EU countries (Germany, France, Britain, Italy, Spain and Poland) Britain has by far the greatest birth rates. Only Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Ireland are growing faster than the UK.
The average age of Europeans is now just over 40; this will be 48 by 2060. The average age for Britons is 39 and will be 42 in 2060 - the lowest age in Europe with the exception of Luxembourg.
The EU's population now stands at 495 million and is projected to rise to more than 520 million by 2035, before falling to 505 million by 2060.
"From 2015 onwards deaths would outnumber births, and population growth due to natural increase, would cease," says the survey, assuming a net migration inflow to the EU of almost 60 million over the next 50 years. "Positive net migration would be the only population growth factor. However, from 2035 this positive net migration would no longer counterbalance the negative natural change."
Across the EU's 27 countries there are now four people of working age for every person over 65, but by 2060 that ratio will be 2:1, causing stress on welfare and pension systems. Torres said pension and health systems had to be reformed.
Fourteen of the 27 countries are projected to have smaller populations in 50 years' time. The survey reveals striking contrasts, between eastern and western Europe and between the north and south, with Scandinavia and Britain comparing positively with Mediterranean Europe, while central and eastern Europe see chronic population depression.
The number of people aged 65 or more broadly doubles across the EU, with Britons of retirement age being almost 19 million. While the number of Germans of working age is predicted to decline from 54 million now to 39 million by 2060, in Britain the figure rises by more than 4 million.
Across the EU, the number of children under 14 will drop from 77 million to 71 million, but in the UK the number rises by 2 million. In Britain the proportion of over-80s will double to 9% while across the EU it will triple to 12%.
The UK population is increasing at a rate of around 1,000 people a day according to figures released by the National Statistics agency earlier this month.
Children aged under 16 represent around one in five of the total population, around the same proportion as those of retirement age. UK fertility rates dropped steadily during the 1980s and 1990s but began to increase again from 2003.
People power
By 2060, the population of major Europen countries will be:
UK 77 million
France 72
Germany 71
Italy 59
Spain 52
Increases in population by 2060:
Cyprus 66%
Ireland 53
Luxembourg 52
UK 25
Decreases in population by 2060:
Bulgaria 28%
Latvia 26
Lithuania 24
Romania 21
The strongly Roman Catholic countries of Europe are having fewer babies. The Italian population will stay the same over the next 50 years, while Poland's and Lithuania's will shrink considerably. Spain's population is forecast to increase by 6 million. Life expectancy is also rising. In Ireland, women will live to 89 and men to 85. Almost one in three Europeans will be of pensionable age if 65 remains the threshold.
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The populations will decrease or remain steady ... AND THAT with immigration. Imagine without the immigration - how dramatic the downturn would be!
The downside to the immigration is - where are the immigrants coming from, who is having more children, and what change will that bring to all of Europe!!
Things are getting worse!
European issues
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