Oh Canada - What do you do now?

In most areas, we set the trends. In this particular and unique area, Canada will set the trend.

Proudfoot and the media missed the real issue. Instead, the focused on the effect, not the cause - and dealt with short term, not long term.

Serious implications.



3 Jan 2009
The Vancouver Sun
BY SHANNON PROUDFOOT
Canwest News Service
Canada’s baby bust

A dearth of children in the country is having DEMOGRAPHICS I a ripple effect throughout the economy, from toy stores to universities.


An unprecedented decline in the number of children in Canada is creating ripples from toy-store aisles to school hallways and hockey arenas, forcing a new approach to a shrinking child population.

“ I often say what happened to elementary schools yesterday happens to high schools today and happens to college and university enrolments tomorrow,” says David Foot, a University of Toronto economist and author of Boom, Bust & Echo. “ It doesn’t mean there’s no market there, but it’s not a growth market, so if you’re going to enter that market you’ve got to have very realistic assumptions.”

Canada’s under-15 population fell by a l m o s t 14, 6 ,0 0 0, or 2. 5 p e r ce n t , between 2001 and 2006, the latest census figures show, and is now 5.6 million.

Just after the height of the baby boom in 1961, more than one-third of the Canadian population ( 34 per cent) was under 15 years old, but by 2006, declining birth rates meant less than 18 per cent fit into that youthful age group. Statistics Canada projects the 65-plus population could outnumber children within 10 years.

“ We’ve rapidly come to the realization that we’ve got a decreasing customer base out there,” says Glen McCurdie, senior director of member services for Hockey Canada, the governing body for amateur hockey. “ Right now, we feel if we are able to maintain our registrations at the current level, then we’re doing a hell of a job.”

So far they’ve managed to do so, with registration for players aged four through the upper teens fluctuating between about 532,000 and 558,000 since the 2002-03 season. The organization has been recruiting girls and immigrants less familiar with the game to bolster its ranks, says McCurdie.

“ I think we’ve been victims of our success there,” he says. “ I think as Canada’s national sport, we just open the doors and accept people that show up. Our attitude is that’s not necessarily good enough anymore and we need to find ways to change that.”

Swimming Canada has enjoyed a 10per-cent boost in young competitive swimmers this year after flatlining at about 28,000 since 2000, says communications director Martin Richard, but he attributes that to post-Olympic excitement and healthy lifestyle choices offsetting the population shift.

But organizers of amateur swimming, soccer and hockey all say adult players are becoming an increasingly important part of their membership and growth strategy in Canada.

“ We’re looking at the writing on the wall with respect to demographics and we need to expand our boundaries beyond 19-and 20-year-olds and look at adults playing the game as well,” says McCurdie.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the declining population of children is unevenly distributed, says Shaune MacKinlay of the Halifax Regional School Board.

Schools in rapidly growing suburbs are bursting at the seams, she says, while some city-core schools languish half-empty and short on funding to replace aging structures built during the baby boom.

“ It creates a bit of a conundrum for us,” she says. “ While we’re faced with declining enrolments over all, we still have pressure-points within our school system.”

There are 52,107 students enrolled in Halifax this school year, down 548 from the year before.
Victoria-area schools have 3,260 fewer students this school year than they did a decade ago, falling almost 15 per cent to 19,052.

Enrolment in Montreal French-language high schools has virtually flatlined at about 26,000 for the last seven years, while the number of elementary school students has declined by almost 4,000, to 36,685 last school year.

Toronto District School Board — the largest in the country — currently has 239,692 students, a decline of 30,910, or 11 per cent, since 2002-2003.

Parents may see smaller class sizes as an advantage, MacKinlay says, but declining enrolment forces boards to stretch resources and populationbased funding further.

One potential solution is embodied in Citadel high school, a cutting-edge, environmentally sustainable school that opened in September 2007 to more efficiently house the students of two old schools with dwindling populations, she says. Located in the heart of Halifax, the school has become a point of pride for the city and a “ flagship” for the school board, MacKinlay said.

At the level of post-secondary education, Foot at U of T says institutions are ignoring demographic realities and planning to expand just when the enrollment bubble is about to “ implode.”

Universities could adjust by marketing themselves to international students, he says.

And with the under-15 crowd dwindling, Foot says the red-hot teen popculture market is about to take a nosedive as well. He says toy companies could start producing more sophisticated teen-friendly toys or pricier collectors’ items aimed at adults.

With toys marketed toward a variety of age groups and classic board games that appeal both to nostalgic parents and their video game-accustomed offspring, Hasbro is diversifying beyond the children’s market, according to Sandy Sinclair, senior vice-president of marketing for the toy giant’s Canadian division. There’s also a significant and growing market for nostalgic and collectible toys for grown-up kids, she says, including GI Joe, Star Wars, My Little Pony and Transformers.

“ Adult collectors who may have more income at their disposal may buy two versions of that same character … to have one in the package and one out of the package, perhaps trade one,” she says of the older toy audience. “ They’re usually massive collections.”

“ They have to reinvent themselves or recalibrate a lot,” Foot says. “ And the smart ones can take advantage of the boomers because they’ll pay for quality and service now.”





Oh Canada