Very informative and ENLIGHTENING column!
JULY 9, 2009
G-8 Climate-Change Agreement Falls Short
By JONATHAN WEISMAN
L'AQUILA, Italy -- The Group of Eight leading nations agreed Wednesday to cut their emissions of heat-trapping gases 80% by 2050, but failed to reach an accord on shorter-term targets -- a setback that could have repercussions for a major meeting on climate change in Copenhagen later this year.
Their failure prompted a larger group of nations -- including China, India, and other developing-country polluters -- to backtrack from their own commitment to numerical targets they had planned to announce Thursday.
Chinese President Hu Jintao's sudden departure from the meeting early Wednesday further complicates negotiations, dealing a potentially significant blow to the summit's ability to produce concrete results on issues from climate change to economic recovery.
China has been a driving force in international discussions about currency, debt and concerns over soaring budget deficits as nations struggle to pull themselves out of the global financial crisis.
President Obama on Wednesday greeted European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, left, as world leaders looked on at the G-8 Summit in L'Aquila, Italy.
Mr. Hu departed to deal with rioting in China's western Xinjiang territory before he could meet privately with U.S. President Barack Obama or attend critical meetings of the G-8 plus 5, which includes China and four other developing economies.
Mr. Hu also was scheduled to attend the larger 17-nation Major Economies Forum on Thursday, chaired by Mr. Obama, and charged with reaching an accord on climate-change issues. Mr. Obama had hoped for a breakthrough in his debut on the stage of the international climate debate, but Mr. Hu's absence makes a last-minute push by Mr. Obama for a broad accord on emissions reductions impossible, U.S. officials here say.
The G-8 nations -- the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, the U.K., Italy, Canada and Russia -- did unite in issuing a declaration Wednesday night expressing "serious concern" about postelection violence in Iran and setting a March 2010 date for a nuclear-security summit in Washington. They also condemned Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for his statements denying the Holocaust.
The group stopped short of setting deadlines for a halt to Iran's nuclear program, saying the United Nations General Assembly meeting in September would provide an opportunity to take stock of options. French President Nicolas Sarkozy tried tougher language late Wednesday for reporters, however, saying that if there wasn't progress by September, "We will have to take decisions," Reuters reported.
On Tuesday night, China's Mr. Hu was dining with local officials and business leaders in a frescoed palazzo in Florence when the meal was cut short by a flurry of phone calls. "In a matter of minutes everything froze, and then they left," said Matteo Renzi, the mayor of Florence.
The Chinese president left behind Chinese state councilor Dai Bingguo, whom U.S. Deputy White House National Security Adviser Denis McDonough describes as a powerful figure. Still, Mr. McDonough said, "It's a fair question" to ask whether Mr. Hu's departure will have an impact.
White House officials expressed disappointment at Mr. Hu's departure, but said the summit here can produce results. They said they didn't expect currency issues to come up, and that the biggest fights over fiscal imbalances and "exit strategies" for economic stimulus programs are with European nations such as Germany, not with China.
"Without China, the wind comes out of the sails," said Steven Schrage, Scholl chair of international business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a G-8 negotiator in the Bush administration.
Since the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, reluctant Western nations have painted the unwillingness of developing economies such as China to sign on to efforts to curb global warming as the largest political and technical impediment to progress. The U.S. Congress and the Bush administration cited the omission of China from Kyoto's mandates as the biggest reason the U.S. wouldn't participate in the treaty.
Developing countries have responded that they shouldn't have to slow or sacrifice their fossil-fuel-based economic growth to help the West atone for its historical consumption patterns.
Wednesday's breakdown here underscored how difficult a breakthrough will be when the world gathers in Copenhagen in December to try to complete a binding treaty to replace Kyoto.
"We still have time before Copenhagen," said Michael Froman, deputy White House national security adviser for international economics.
U.S. officials framed the L'Aquila climate-change declarations as progress. Numerical targets for emissions reductions by 2050 are largely meaningless anyway, as the target is so far in the future, they said. "It would be a big mistake to look only at 2050," said Todd Stern, the chief U.S. climate-change negotiator.
But it was the failure of the developed nations to set short-term goals that gave the developing countries their reason for torpedoing a broader deal that seemed within reach just a week ago. The G-8 nations also couldn't agree on a pledge to help fund poorer countries' moves toward cleaner energy sources and mitigate the effects of climate change they are already feeling.
A draft declaration had provisionally called for $400 million in this aid -- a figure many nations called too small and others called too large. In the end, they got only theoretical commitments to help with finances and technology.
Still, the G-8 declaration did move the developed world toward stricter regulations on the emissions of climate-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. The developed nations agreed a year ago to a 50% reduction by 2050, but European negotiators argued a more aggressive target was needed ultimately to convince the developing nations. This year, they got 80%.
But that may be less significant than it seems because the G-8 declaration leaves it to individual nations to decide their emissions baselines. Germany and other European countries wanted emissions cut 80% from 1990 levels. The U.S. wanted the cuts to be counted against current levels. The declaration states the reductions will be counted against 1990 levels "or later years."
"It recognizes multiple baselines," Mr. Froman said.
In another breakthrough, the G-8 agreed on Wednesday that global temperatures shouldn't rise more than two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels. The U.S. has long resisted setting a temperature ceiling. Translating that ceiling into action will entail dramatic changes that will affect every corner of the global economy, especially as temperatures already have risen nearly one degree.
But some were less than impressed. "The G-8 might have agreed to avoid cooking the planet by more than two degrees, but they made no attempt to turn down the heat anytime soon," said Antonio Hill, spokesman for Oxfam International, summing up the view of several liberal environmental groups here.
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