A government that carries on a charade to a large degree over control of the lands of Pakistan. The government of Pakistan does not have control of Waziristan, does not have control of its border region, does not control who enters or exits Pakistan from two directions. The government asks the permission of tribal leaders before it acts. Not to mention the financial crisis has forced Pakistan to very nearly beg for financial aid from the IMF.
Sidebar:
Government: yes, we would like to send in troops to this area. May we do so? There are al qaida people in this area.
Tribal Chiefs: Let us think about this.
(a few phone calls later to the area in question)
Tribal Chiefs: yes, you may, but you must pay us this much money and must not begin until after sundown and you must be done by sun up and no one who is not a Muslim may enter the lands, and no bullets or equipment made by the US or Israel may be used, and the men who are involved must all wear black berets and carry 14 inch daggers, and they must not wear boots, they must wear traditional slippers, and we must be paid in advance, and as the government forces leave they must leave their weapons behind.
The government itself is riddled with al qaida or Taliban supporters - the ISI and its control of the military and government bureaucracy leaves the civilian government little more than a facade behind which the real power is wielded by people who do not have the interests of Western Civilization anywhere in their top 20. The perception that the government begs for aid from the IMF will do nothing but weaken the government in the eyes of the extremists.
The government will take many years to fully change the infrastructure that provides haven to and support of extremist elements in the government. Until then - it is precariously perched upon a precipice - on one side, hope and change and opportunity. The other side of this precipice is death - for many thousands and a destabilized region that will make what has gone on in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan, Congo, and Rwanda look like pre-school.
A government in possession of nuclear weapons, controlled by ISI / pro-taliban/al qaida elements, supportive of extremist views makes everything Iran has done for terrorism seem like childs play. India cannot sit around and tolerate this - they have their own nuclear weapons.
The worlds largest democracy INDIA - stacked against a country that has technically never stopped its war, and now that enemy is under the control of the most extreme elements in Islam and they would possess nuclear weapons. What would you do if you were India, and don't say negotiate - India cannot afford to negotiate with people pointing nuclear weapons at them who want to die and go to heaven. Right now, the precarious perch keep this from happening. A delicate balance.
However, should we find intelligence that shows bin Laden is in a mountain area and we attack Pakistan - the government will fall, al qaida and taliban forces will take over, the pro-western forces will be killed or flee, India will go on highest alert, India's forces will move quickly into the Kashmir, and all this will come by March 2009 ...
In Israel - the extreme Jewish parties have vetoed the Kadima candidate for Prime Minister -Tzipi Livni. This will force an election and for the next 45-60 days, Israel will have an acting caretaker government. While the government will be able to function - it will not be as direct in acting as it would under one leader. In order to keep the integrity, all party candidates will be informed and consulted, and while this will not take an excessive amount of time, it will not be as seamless as it would have been if one person was in control. Is it weakness? Out of 10, maybe a fraction of 1, but as far as perception is concerned it would be a 4 or 5.
Since the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza 2005 and the removal of all Israeli troops out of Gaza, since the ceasefire 2007 with whomever it was - hamas/fatah ... more weapons have been smuggled in to Gaza and the West Bank than in the year prior to the ceasefire.
Russian sale of weapons to Syria - missiles and rockets.
Syrian positioning of troops on the border of Lebanon, Syrian troops in Lebanon. In process.
Sidebar:
News flash for idiots and losers - Syria is working with Iran and Hizbollah = Sunni and Shia working together. Al Qaida = Sunni. Iran = Shia. Not so far apart after all.
Iran is assisting Hizbollah with armaments. In process.
Iran is, by recent statements, at the most 4 months away from being in a position to possess a nuclear weapon.
Russia is exerting military pressure - threatening Poland and the Ukraine. If they install the US missile defense system, Russia has threatened military action against them. Russian military power exerting itself ... in Georgia, and threats against Poland and the Ukraine. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - unlikely.
Venezuela - Chavez is in deep trouble. The infrastructure in his country is crumbling. held together by rubber bands. It will take decades to modernize, and the people will not wait. he holds billions - used to repress people and support extremist actions worldwide ... he will have to act within the next six months to suppress the rising call to end his regime and attempts to do just that. What he does will require the US attention and depending, our involvement. We cannot ignore a country that is part of a tripartite supplying nearly 50% of our oil, and not act when one of the three is a weak link. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - very possible.
Congo - thousands are dying and the problem is only getting worse. In process.
Sudan - genocide on a level that is unknown since Rwanda. In process.
Philippines - A new Supreme Court ruling in that country has ended any hope of a peaceful resolution to the decades-old conflict between the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and the Philippines government. Peace talks have broken down before but not like this. It will be much harder this time, even if talks resume, to simply pick up from where they left off. What happens now will be what has happened every time in the past when talks ended and compromise was refused - death. The difference - it was nearly ten years ago, and the Islamic movement has gained quite a few new tools in its arsenal, to use against the government and the civilian populations. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - very possible.
Thailand - not going away. Along dormant separatist movement that happens to be Islamic - corruption and instability throughout Thailand ... and it is ripe for a revolution that will turn into a bloodbath. The people do not support the military nor do they support the government that has been shown within the last three years to be corrupt. Add to this the head of the military - also happens to be a Muslim. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - quite possible.
Bolivia - separatists, the country is dividing. Look for Venezuela to be involved along with communist insurgents. Lots of money to be made. Over 30 people killed in one of the three most volatile provinces seeking separation. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - quite likely.
North Korea - an imminent statement was to be provided at the beginning of October sometime, by the government of North Korea. Many speculated it would reveal to the world that Kim had died. One way or another, the rule of Kim il Jung is near an end or soon to end, and the nuclear program has resumed or may resume, despite the US removing North Korea from the terrorist list. Chances for a conflagration within 6 months - possible.
THESE are the real problems we face today.
Both candidates agree - our economy will get stronger and it will repair itself, it will regardless of who is in office. That stated - who is best able to handle the above 13-14 situations. Who is best able to deal with the above 13 issues that will with certainty afflict the next president in his first six months and with certainty, within his first four years.
It is not the man who has less experience than my mailman. It is not the man about whom we have nothing to gauge his behavior, but about whom we know quite a bit about his character - and it is not very good.
We cannot. We must not hire someone to spend the next four years getting experience.
Millions of lives depend upon the decision - and none of them are in the US. The number of Americans affected will be many times that many.
Obama
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