Last update - 12:05 22/10/2008
Top Iran officials recommend preemptive strike against Israel
By Barak Ravid, Haaretz Correspondent
Senior Tehran officials are recommending a preemptive strike against Israel to prevent an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear reactors, a senior Islamic Republic official told foreign diplomats two weeks ago in London. The official, Dr. Seyed G. Safavi, said recent threats by Israeli authorities strengthened this position, but that as of yet, a preemptive strike has not been integrated into Iranian policy. Safavi is head of the Research Institute of Strategic Studies in Tehran, and an adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The institute is directly affiliated with Khamenei's office and with the Revolutionary Guards, and advises both on foreign policy issues.
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Safavi is also the brother of Yahya Rahim Safavi, who was the head of the Revolutionary Guards until a year ago and now is an adviser to Khamenei, and holds significant influence on security matters in the Iranian government. An Israeli political official said senior Jerusalem officials were shown Safavi's remarks, which are considered highly sensitive. The source said the briefing in London dealt with a number of issues, primarily a potential Israeli attack on an Iranian reactor. Safavi said a small, experienced group of officials is lobbying for a preemptive strike against Israel. "The recent Israeli declarations and harsh rhetoric on a strike against Iran put ammunition in these individuals' hands," he said. Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz said in June that Israel would be forced to strike the Iranian nuclear reactor if Tehran continues to pursue its uranium enrichment program. Safavi said Tehran recently drafted a new policy for responding to an Israeli or American attack on its nuclear facilities. While the previous policy called for attacks against Israel and American interests in the Middle East and beyond, the new policy is to target Israel alone. He added that many Revolutionary Guard leaders want to respond to a U.S. attack on Iranian soil by striking Israel, as they believe Israel would be partner to any U.S. action. Safavi said that Iran's nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes only, and that Khamenei recently released a fatwa against the use of weapons of mass destruction, though the contents of that religious ruling have not yet been publicized. Regarding dialogue with the United States and the West, Safavi said Iran's decision would be influenced by the results of the U.S. presidential elections next month, as well as by the Iranian presidential elections in June and the economic situation in the Islamic Republic. Safavi also said that a victory by U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama would pave the way for dialogue with Washington, while a John McCain presidency would bolster Iran's extreme right, which opposes dialogue. If conditions are favorable following the U.S. election, he said, Iran could draw back from President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's declaration that "the nuclear case is closed," and put it back on the agenda. Safavi said he believed that U.S. sanctions on Iran have run their course, and that there would be no point in strengthening them. Tehran would therefore demand "firm and significant" U.S. measures in return for stopping uranium enrichment. He also said Ahmadinejad is not guaranteed victory in the June 2009 elections, particularly given the dire economic situation in Iran. Still, Iranian experts believe his only real competition is former president Mohammad Khatami, who has not yet joined the race. Safavi said the inflation rate in Iran is similar to that before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but that unrest among civilians today is not as strong. This is because the current government uses oil revenues to help the poor, he said.
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US intelligence: Iran will be able to build first nuclear bomb by February 2009
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
October 21, 2008, 1:06 PM (GMT+02:00)
US intelligence’s amended estimate, that Iran will be ready to build its first bomb just one month after the next US president is sworn in, is disclosed by DEBKAfile’s Washington sources as having been relayed as a guideline to the Middle East teams of both presidential candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.
The information prompted the assertion by Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden in Seattle Sunday, Oct. 19: “It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy.”
McCain retorted Tuesday, Oct. 21: “America does not need a president that needs to be tested. I’ve been tested. I was aboard the Enterprise off the coast of Cuba. I’ve been there.”)
DEBKAfile’s military sources cite the new US timeline: By late January, 2009, Iran will have accumulated enough low-grade enriched uranium (up to 5%) for its “break-out” to weapons grade (90%) material within a short time. For this, the Iranians have achieved the necessary technology. In February, they can move on to start building their first nuclear bomb.
US intelligence believes Tehran has the personnel, plans and diagrams for a bomb and has been running experiments to this end for the past two years. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna last week asked Tehran to clarify recent complex experiments they conducted in detonating nuclear materials for a weapon, but received no answer.
The same US evaluation adds that the Iranian leadership is holding off its go-ahead to start building the bomb until the last minute so as to ward off international pressure to stop at the red line.
This development together with the galloping global economic crisis will force the incoming US president to go straight into decision-making without pause on Day One in the Oval Office. He will have to determine which urgent measures can serve best for keeping a nuclear bomb out of the Islamic republic’s hands - diplomatic or military – and how to proceed if those measures fail.
His knowledge of the challenge colored Sen. Biden’s additional words in Seattle: “Remember I said it standing here if you don’t remember anything else I said. Watch, we’re gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.”
Israel’s political and military leaders also face a tough dilemma that can no longer be put off of whether to strike Iran’s nuclear installations militarily in the next three months between US presidencies before the last window closes, or take a chance on coordination with the next president.
Waiting for the “international community” to do the job of stopping Iran, as urged by governments headed by Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert - and strongly advocated Tzipi Livni, foreign minister and would-be prime minister - has been a washout. Iran stands defiantly on the threshold of a nuclear weapon.
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Arab Websites report Mossad chief assassinated in Amman. Israeli sources deny
DEBKAfile Special Report
October 21, 2008, 12:34 PM (GMT+02:00)
Meir Dagan, Mossad director
DEBKAfile reports that Arab Internet sites, most of them Jordanian, claim that 10 days ago on Oct. 12, Meir Dagan, the head of Israel’s external intelligence service, the Mossad, was targeted by assassins while visiting Amman. Some describe a large bomb explosion alongside his convoy and add that Israeli and Jordanian guards with the convoy were injured. Others say Dagan himself was hurt or even killed in the attack. They claim Israel and Jordan are keeping the incident a secret.
DEBKAfile’s sources have no knowledge of any visit by Meir Dagan to the Jordanian capital.
Jordanian officials are trying hard to dismiss the incident. Without going on record, they maintain Dagan paid no recent visits to their capital and was not attacked. This has not been enough to dispel the rumors, according to one of which a hit-man or team linked to Hizballah or Iran managed to avenge the death of Hizballah military chief Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus last February.
The Arab world sees Dagan as master of the hidden Israeli hand which reached into Syria to target Mugniyeh and destroyed Syria’s plutonium reactor in September 2007.
According to another theory, Damascus is working the rumor mill to offset the unfavorable impression generated in the Arab world by its military concentrations on Lebanon’s borders.
Meir Dagan would need to make an appearance in person to dispel the rumors.
The movements of intelligence chiefs who travel in constant fear of their lives, especially in the Middle East, are strictly shrouded in secrecy.
Whether the US CIA director Gen. Michael Hayden, for instance, actually went through with a planned visit to Beirut on Oct. 16, has never been disclosed.
DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources confirm that he was indeed there. The visit was important to make sure that the new head of Lebanese military intelligence, Gen. Edmund Fadal, who traveled to Damascus directly after his appointment to meet his Syrian counterpart, Gen. Asif Shawqat, was not caught in the Syrian net. The service he heads is the staunchest pro-Western military outfit in Lebanon.
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Olmert remains in place??
The guy who restrained Israel against Hizbollah last time???
Tzipi Livni loses momentum for forming a government
October 22, 2008, 12:24 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tzipi Livni is running out of time
Foreign minister Tzipi Livni is running out of time for forming a viable coalition government. Ehud Olmert will therefore deliver the opening speech of the Knesset winter session next Tuesday as caretaker prime minister followed by opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, Likud.
After failing to pull together a majority line-up in 28 days of hard bargaining, the Kadima leader has two weeks ending on Nov. 3 to finish the task, although when first entrusted with the task she pledged she would go for a new election if she failed to pull it off in the first ten days.
So far, only Labor has initialed a deal, but its leader, defense minister Ehud Barak, has said it is not final. Labor and other potential partners, the ultra-religious Shas and Pensioners, are holding out for substantial extra allocations for large families, senior citizens and healthcare, before signing on. Finance minister Ronnie Bar-On, Livni’s mainstay in their Kadima party, is standing firm against reopening the budget which the Knesset must endorse by year’s end.
On the horns of this dilemma, Livni must also juggle the budding opposition in her own party to a minority government, which is all she may be able to scrape together in the time left her. The dissident movement is spearheaded by transport minister Shaul Mofaz, the candidate she defeated for the Kadima party leadership. He is conducting an independent line of negotiations with possible coalition partners.
The foreign minister’s failure would leave two options: The president may entrust the task of forming a government to another lawmaker with credible support, or an early election may be called, to take place most probably in the first quarter or 2009.
The Olmert government would remain in place as caretaker until a new government is formed.
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Russians, Syrians discuss missile shield – initially for Tartus port
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
October 18, 2008
Russian Iskander-E missile
The Russian-Syrian discussions in progress in both their capitals cover the disposition of air defense S-300PMU-2 and Iskander-E missiles – to be deployed initially around Syria’s Mediterranean ports where Moscow is building naval bases.
DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal that these two high-powered items have not been excluded from the big Russian-Syrian arms deal under discussion, despite appeals from Washington and Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, who made a special trip to Moscow for this purpose earlier this month.
As soon as he flew home, the foreign ministry spokesman in Moscow maintained ambiguously on Oct. 9 that Russia would not supply air defense systems to “volatile regions.” He said such decisions are based on regional security issues and “the need to maintain a balance of forces” in the region.
This was taken to mean that if weapons delivered to Israel were seen by Moscow as upsetting “the balance of forces,” Moscow would think again about withholding the S-300 and Iskander-E missiles.
Our Moscow sources disclose that the Russians now view the supply of the advanced American FBX-T anti-missile radar system to Israel in September and its deployment in the Negev base of Nevatim as a balance-breaker.
In the broader context of its contest with Washington, the Kremlin regards the US radar system installed in the Negev to be an integral part of the US missile shield deployed in the face of Russian protests in Poland and the Czech Republic. Moscow has already indicated it may hit back by moving nuclear-armed Iskander-E missiles to the Baltic opposite the US batteries deployed in East Europe.
Positioning missile systems at Syrian ports would be part of Russia’s overall military payback for the array of US missile and radar installations in Europe and the Middle East.
Therefore, DEBKAfile’s military sources report, the Kremlin may decide against handing the missiles to the Syrian army but prefer to install them to guard the Mediterranean naval bases Russians are building at the Syrian ports of Tartus and Latakia.
Another option would be to outfit the Russian warships to be anchored in Syria ports with S-300 missiles, which are already part of the weapons array of the Peter the Great missile cruiser, which carried out maneuvers in the Mediterranean last week.
In either case, Russian fingers would be on the controls of these batteries in the early stages of delivery.
At the same time, the big Russian arms deal in negotiation would substantially boost and upgrade Damascus’ war armory with some pretty impressive hardware, all paid for by Tehran:
1. Mig-29 M2 fighter-bombers
2. Mig-31 fighter-bombers.
3. Su-30 Flanker bombers.
4. Mobile Tor-M1 air defense missiles, like the ones sold to Iran. Iran and Syria are obviously integrating their air and missile defense systems with Russian hardware, further facilitating Moscow’s military expansion in the Middle East.
5. Pantsir-C air defense missiles.
6. Extensive Russian upgrades of Syria’s antiquated T-62, T-72 and T-80 tanks.
7. Upgrades of Syrian SA-5 Gammon, S-125 and Pechora-2A missiles.
8. Advanced ATM anti-tank missiles.
Last year, too, Iran forked out for Syria’s Russian arms acquisitions.
While some Israeli leaders, including president Shimon Peres, predicted that falling oil prices would inhibit the two radical allies’ arms shopping plans, our military sources note this paradox: Iran has scarcely been affected by the international financial crisis because international sanctions have long isolated its financial system from international banking and taught the Islamic republic to live with an economy on the ropes.
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Tehran wants Barack Obama in the White House, rules out war
DEBKAfile Special Report
October 23, 2008, 8:32 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani
During a visit to Bahrain, Iran’s parliament speaker Ali Larijani said Wednesday, Oct. 22, that Tehran would prefer Democratic senator Barack Obama in the White House next year. He also ruled out any US attack on his country. “The risk was low before, but now I am 100 percent certain that the United States will not unleash a war against Iran,” he said at a new conference in Manama.
“We lean more in favor of Obama,”, “because he is more flexible and rational, even through we know American policy will not change that much.”
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Bush to Assad: Sever Ties with Iran and Take the Golan Heights
18 Tishrei 5769, 17 October 08 11:49 by Hana Levi Julian
(IsraelNN.com) U.S. President George W. Bush offered Syrian President Bashar Assad a secret deal to pull Israel out of the Golan Heights in exchange for Damascus breaking off ties with Tehran, according to a report published Friday in the Kuwaiti newspaper al-Jarida.
A Palestinian Authority (PA) source quoted in the report said Bush reportedly proposed "a quick and satisfactory solution" to Syria's dispute with Israel over the Golan Heights. The "solution" was to be finalized "within several weeks, before the U.S. presidential elections, in order to push the Middle East peace process, an achievement the president will be able to proudly present before leaving the White House in January," according to Cairo-based journalist Abdel-Wahab Al-Nasser.
The offer allegedly came in a letter sent via PA Chairman and Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, who arrived in Damascus for meetings with Assad and other Syrian officials beginning last Saturday.
Abbas's visit was billed at the time as an attempt by Abbas to shore up his political position within the PA due to the fact that his current term in office ends on January 9, 2009, and as part of his effort to reconcile his Fatah faction with the rival Hamas terrorist organization that took over complete control of Gaza in June 2007.
According to the PA source, the real purpose of Abbas's visit, however, was to deliver the secret letter, the knowledge of which was kept secret from the American Ambassador in Damascus and the members of Abbas's entourage. It was delivered personally by Abbas to Assad, said the source, who added that "the United States stressed the importance of this confidential letter outside the usual official channels."
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's spokesman David Baker said in response to a call from Israel National News, "We have nothing to comment regarding that report."
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