For several reasons, American officials publicly state bin Laden has little influence. 1) It does not comport with the Obama view of terror, 2) bin Laden is isolated in a cave or mud hut in Waziristan or Southern Afghanistan and cannot direct anyone to do anything, 3) the attacks in the last few years have been very narrowly focused, and less against the US than against specific places or people unconnected to the larger quest bin Laden outlined in 2001.
The problem with this thinking is - the people offering these arguments are 1) either trying to diminish the seriousness a) to force bin laden into making a mistake, or b) it does not comport with the Obama view of terror.
It is possible these officials know and understand the seriousness, but it is also possible they are all as clueless as Obama, when it comes to terrorism and al qaida.
Al Qaida is not a Western invention. Stop thinking of al qaida using Western constructs. The paradigms you have used to understand everything from the SLA to FLQ to IRA do not work. Stop trying to super impose a great power theory onto al qaida or bin Laden - that when great powers lose their power they recede in importance and a period of chaos ensues until another power fills the vacuum.
You forget how Khalid Sheikh Mohammad approached bin Laden with plans for the 2001 attacks, or how Ramzi Yousef with the 1993 plans on the WTC. KSM traveled to bin Laden, into the hills, over the dales, down through the valleys, up to the peaks, and into the cave. Bin Laden gives his approval, discussion on funding ensues, and KSM leaves with bin Ladens approval. Later other agents will leave the cave and begin the process of background support - financial, transportation. These agents will travel to Peshwar and call their cousin or brother, son, father, or uncle in England, and begin the process for assurance of funds - the way in which most terror money is transferred. The person in England will call his: uncle, brother, nephew, or son in Atlanta and tell him to provide the money to individuals who will eventually approach him for money - all of this without any money being moved around yet. We don't do this in the West, based upon our word - but they do it. The Patriot Act was useful in tracking these sorts down.
Sometime ago, someone travelled to see bin Laden, had the same conversation KSM did, years before, and bin Laden gave his approval for the larger plan. He didn't care about the details of how the larger plan would come into fruition; just that it did - he understood to get from A to C, meant lots of little B's ... and the Nigerian was a B.
Bin Laden is as responsible for the attack on the Saudi Prince as he was for 2001, as he was for the London attacks, the Spain rail attacks, and the Nigerian and his failed attempt to blow up a plane and kill more than 200 people. For Obama, and many others who have tired of the war on terror - they refuse to acknowledge that the problem is as widespread as it is, with as many people involved and collaborating, for to accept this fact, would necessarily require you to accept we are at war with individuals who are unrelenting, whose influence stretches across the seas and deserts, with thousands of minions ready to act, and tens of thousands more willing to help. It is not a Western paradigm of war - where one army marshals its forces on a battlefield and the enemy lines up against them, and they do battle, and because it is not, it requires people to understand what is not clear - and that is where Obama fails.
Obama does not have the skills necessary; neither do most of those who went with him to DC. Until we recognize publicly how the enemy acts, we will always be playing catch-up.
Bin Laden takes responsibility for Christmas Day airline bombing plot
The Al Qaeda leader vows to continue targeting the U.S. as long as Washington backs Israel. But American officials doubt he played a meaningful role in planning the failed attack.
By Borzou Daragahi and Greg Miller
9:53 AM PST, January 24, 2010
Reporting from Washington and Beirut
Al Qaeda's leader claimed responsibility for the Christmas Day attempt to blow up an American civilian jet in an audiotape broadcast today on Arab television.
In the clip, Osama bin Laden said his group was behind the failed attempt, allegedly carried out by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to blow up a Detroit-bound Northwest Airlines flight.
Speaking directly to President Obama, he vowed to continue launching terrorist attacks against the United States as long as Washington supported what he described as Israel's unjust treatment of Palestinians.
"From Osama to Obama: Peace upon the one who follows guidance," he said on the tape, broadcast on the pan-Arab Al Jazeera satellite news channel, his image appearing on the screen as he spoke. "America will not dream of security until we experience it as a reality in Palestine."
U.S. intelligence officials did not cast doubt on the authenticity of the tape, but expressed skepticism that Bin Laden or his lieutenants played a meaningful role in conceiving or executing the Christmas Day plot.
"Al Qaeda in Yemen takes strategic guidance from Al Qaeda's leadership in the tribal areas in Pakistan," a U.S. intelligence official said. "But we've never seen indications that the senior Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan have directed tactical, day-to-day operational planning for them in Yemen. Their relationship hasn't really functioned that way."
No evidence has surfaced to indicate that Abdulmutallab traveled to Pakistan in preparation for the plot. Instead, U.S. spy agencies in recent weeks have had to acknowledge their failure to recognize significant clues that began to surface last year indicating a terrorist plot was taking shape in Yemen, and that Abdulmutallab allegedly was being groomed by Al Qaeda operatives there for an attack.
U.S. officials described the message from Bin Laden as an attempt to take propaganda advantage of a plot hatched by Al Qaeda's offshoot in Yemen.
"Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was behind the failed attack on Christmas Day. That's clear," the U.S. intelligence official said. "So a message like this -- no matter whose voice it may be -- should come as no surprise."
In his message, Bin Laden likened the arrested Nigerian national Abdulmutallab, who authorities say claimed that he received instructions for carrying out the bombing plot from a cleric in Bin Laden's ancestral home of Yemen, to those behind the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
"If our messages to you could be carried by words, we would not have delivered them by planes," he said on the tape, which could not be independently verified. "The message we want to communicate to you through the plane of the hero, the holy warrior Umar Farouk . . . is a confirmation of a previous message, which was delivered to you by the heroes of [Sept. 11] and which was repeated previously and afterward."
[For those nutters who can read - bin Laden is AGAIN taking credit for September 11, 2001. Something he has done aboput 200 times since 2001.]
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, an apparent offshoot of Bin Laden's loosely defined organization, had claimed responsibility for the attempted attack, in which the 23-year-old Abdulmutallab allegedly tried without success to detonated explosives attached to his underwear.
The nature of the plot and the device employed are strikingly similar to a suicide bombing Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula carried out last year against the head of Saudi Arabia's anti-terrorism program. Prince Mohammed bin Nayef survived that strike, in part because he may have been shielded from the force of the blast of a bomb the attacker had hidden on his body.
Many analysts have speculated that the Christmas Day attack was carried out without Bin Laden's input, in a sign of Al Qaeda's continued splintering.
Bin Laden, believed to be holed up somewhere in the lawless tribal areas of northwest Pakistan, began concentrating on the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict only in recent years. He fought against Soviet occupation for years in Afghanistan before turning his sights on the 1990s U.S. military presence in Saudi Arabia and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars over the last decade.
But the Israeli offensive against Hamas-ruled Gaza, which ended a year ago this month, has proved an effective rallying cry for Islamic radicals in the region.
"It is not fair that you should live peacefully while our brothers in Gaza are experiencing the most miserable living," Bin Laden said in his message, apparently addressing Americans directly. "Based on this, with the permission of God, our raids against you will continue as long as your support for the Israelis is continuing."
Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Andy David dismissed Bin Laden's attempt to link attacks against the U.S. to Washington's support for Israel.
"This is nothing new, he has said this before," David said, according to the Associated Press. "Terrorists always look for absurd excuses for their despicable deeds."
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