June 20, 2009
The Sydney Morning Herald
Barack Obama should remember that it is good to be loved, but more important to be feared.
Barack Obama's Cairo speech on Islam and the West was yet another rendezvous in Obama's romance with the wider world. George Bush dodged shoes on his last Middle East visit. Obama was catching bouquets. "Obama, Obama," the overwhelmingly Arab audience chanted as he left Cairo University's Great Hall stage.
Why such remarkable international prestige? Some of the answer has to do with America. Most people know instinctively that reports of America's death are greatly exaggerated, that Washington will be central to the resolution of all great international issues for some time to come. There is relief, therefore, that the alternatively intransigent and hapless Bush was replaced by someone of Obama's talent and agility - a victory that chimes with America's most liked attributes, its openness and receptiveness to talent.
And an African-American president is attractive to anybody moved by the injustice of slavery, particularly those at the margins.
Obama's multinational make-up appeals too. All quarters of the world claim kinship with Obama: Europeans discern a similar mindset; Muslims look to his middle name; Africans recall his lineage; Asians think of his upbringing.
Every foreign trip, therefore, has the feeling of a homecoming or at least a major cultural event. Next month, he's scheduled to visit Ghana, where he will visit the hub of the British slave trade, the Cape Coast Castle. In November he is expected to visit his childhood home in Jakarta.
Images from the slave dungeons of Africa and the streets of Indonesia may be as powerful as Obama's inauguration on the brilliant white steps of the US Capitol.
People can tire of all this, perhaps sooner than we think, but Obama is backing up his international charm offensive with an impressive display of diplomacy. He inherited from Bush diabolical international challenges including bloody wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, a shrinking economy and a heating planet. But his policy responses have been adroit. Obama has not faced his most challenging tests, but he is off to a sure-footed start.
Ambition is the first of four themes that characterise Obama's foreign policy. The US President does not lack self-confidence. On his first day in the White House, press secretary Robert Gibbs reported that he "looked very comfortable in his surroundings" notwithstanding that a mere four years earlier, his surroundings were the Illinois Senate.
Obama's confidence extends from the personal to the political. He has promised to change the way America is perceived, work towards a nuclear-free world, bring peace to the Holy Land and effect a comprehensive settlement between Israelis and Arabs, and avert a climate catastrophe at the same time that he retools the financial system and kick-starts an economic recovery.
The second theme is pragmatism. On Iraq and Afghanistan, for instance, Obama has been prepared to shade his campaign promises in order to conform with the advice of his military commanders.
Obama is attracted to things that work. His decision to make Hillary Clinton secretary of state strengthened his administration but also stunted the careers of many loyal foreign policy wonks who had spurned Clinton in the primaries and signed up with the Obama campaign instead.
Obama's pre-presidential writings and speeches on foreign policy were mainly free of ideological content, and some of his statements as president reveal a professorial pragmatism. In Europe, Obama was asked whether he believed in American exceptionalism. "I believe in American exceptionalism, just as I suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism." Does Obama not realise that America is unique, a shining city on a hill which cannot possibly be compared with other countries?
The third theme is liberalism. Obama had a very liberal voting record in Illinois and in the US Senate. Unlike other Democratic candidates for president, he did not stew for decades in the Washington foreign policy soup. He did not believe he had to look tougher than the Republicans in order to beat them.
Obama's liberalism is evident in plans to close the Guantanamo Bay detention centre, the ban on torture, his comments on nuclear weapons, and the ending of Washington's macabre dance of climate change denial, scepticism and delay.
The final theme is that of engagement. In Clinton, he appointed one of the world's most famous people as his chief diplomat, and installed big beasts such as Richard Holbrooke and George Mitchell as special envoys. He recorded a video message to the Iranian people commemorating the Persian new year, pressed "reset" on relations with Russia, and made nice with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Evo Morales of Bolivia and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua. Obama is no pacifist, as Somali pirates have learned, but diplomacy is on the rise.
All this makes for an impressive combination. Most of it is good news for Australia, although we will have to be smarter and work harder to get access to Washington's inner councils. Obama doesn't know Australia well, and he's not really an alliance man anyway, and competition for the president's attention is fiercer. Like Obama, Kevin Rudd is a pragmatic policy wonk from the centre-left.
Bush's approach of punishing adversaries by not speaking to them did not work. It makes sense to reach out to competitors and to try to identify mutual interests. But not all interests are mutual or even reconcilable.
International relations is an unsentimental business; you must deploy leverage and pressure as well as sweet reason.
On international as well as domestic issues such as farm subsidies and the assault weapons ban, however, Obama has been surprisingly quick to compromise. A rare exception has been Washington's public dispute with Israel over settlements, with Obama squeezing Benjamin Netanyahu between attachment to settlers and the Israeli public's attachment to good relations the US.
To be a great foreign policy president, Obama must demonstrate there are significant costs in opposing him on important issues. It is good to be loved, said Machiavelli, but more important to be feared. As Obama deals with Tehran and Pyongyang and tries to force his way through the thicket of national interests on climate change, he may wish to download some Machiavelli onto his BlackBerry along with Miles Davis and Jay-Z.
Michael Fullilove is director of the global issues program at the Lowy Institute and a non-resident senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
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I agree with Mr. Fullilove almost entirely, but he has a number points I do not believe accurately reflect Mr. Obama, or his view of the world.
Mr. Fullilove asks whether or not Obama realizes that America is unique, a shining city on a hill which cannot possibly be compared with other countries? The answer - No, he honestly does not.
In order then -
People can tire of all this, perhaps sooner than we think, but Obama is
backing up his international charm offensive with an impressive display of
diplomacy. He inherited from Bush diabolical international challenges including
bloody wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea, a
shrinking economy and a heating planet. But his policy responses have been
adroit.
His 'diplomacy' is not exactly active. George Mitchel, for all the brilliance he is showered with managed to accomplish what? A peace plan in Ireland? Keep in mind other parties were involved and had to be desirous of peace for any process to work. Mitchell was sent to fix something already on the mend. In addition, within days of the signing of the paperwork, distrust and hostility broke out. Violence ensued and flared up for weeks afterwards. It was only ten years later that the work Mitchell did appears to have worked.
Bush inherited North Korea from Clinton, and while Obama inherited Iraq and Afghanistan, the more accurate depiction of those wars is - the Western world has inherited the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan, except Iraq today is comparable to the days when Saddam ruled with his iron first in terms of calm and peace - only without the diabolical regime and nuclear weapons.
The heating planet is a non-starter and we should leave it to the side until we in the US begin to start having a summer. Don't credit Obama with this - not when his plan includes curbs on emissions to begin in 3 years and raising taxes. THAT doesn't fix anything. That takes money from the American people to spread around the globe to people who do not do very much other than to hate the US - and their hate is not because we pollute, for we do much more than pollute, unless your TV is locked on Earth Channel 24/7.
The US President does not lack self-confidence. On his first day in the White
House, press secretary Robert Gibbs reported that he "looked very comfortable in
his surroundings" notwithstanding that a mere four years earlier, his
surroundings were the Illinois Senate.
And this means what? You draw from this a conclusion, or support for a position that is not reasonable. Clinton looked comfortable. Bush was comfortable. Reagan was very comfortable. Nixon, Ford, and Bush 41 were all comfortable. Kennedy was comfortable, even Johnson was comfortable. Perhaps only Carter was uncomfortable.
Obama's confidence extends from the personal to the political. He has
promised to change the way America is perceived, work towards a nuclear-free
world, bring peace to the Holy Land and effect a comprehensive settlement
between Israelis and Arabs, and avert a climate catastrophe at the same time
that he retools the financial system and kick-starts an economic recovery.
The dislike for the US among Arabs - the ones who count, because it is the ones who count who protest, burn flags, plant bombs, and kill people. The others who are peaceful, law abiding - do not count. In large part because of the nature of Islam. So the ones who count hate us as much or more - the US has shown weakness and to those who count, weakness must be taken advantage of.
Egypt, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas are no closer to peace with Israel and acceptance of Israel as a Jewish state today than they were thirty years ago. Israel has been alienated, the Israeli people (majority) do not like Obama.
Obama is not averting a climate catastrophe - the changes don't go into effect for three years, and when they do the bloody joke is on us all - NOTHING will change except to transfer hundreds of millions from the rich to the poor. Same pollution, different method of computing it.
A nuclear free world - what a joke. Within six months of being in office, Bush met with Putin and the two of them deactivated the majority of our stockpiles and took them off line. They went back to the storage shelves. That was a major step and done without the usual pomp and circumstance. Obama has talked a lot, as nuclear technology seems to be proliferating - Saudi Arabia and Egypt have made public statements about their interest in nuclear reactors (bombs). Russia has said it will never go below a specified level and has in fact re-activated its nuclear arsenal in the last ten months.
The second theme is pragmatism. On Iraq and Afghanistan, for instance, Obama
has been prepared to shade his campaign promises in order to conform with the
advice of his military commanders.
In English - he is backpedaling. Or for the very simple liberals - he is not about to fulfill his promises. He lied.
Obama is attracted to things that work.
Like socialized medicine? Ha.
His decision to make Hillary Clinton secretary of state strengthened his
administration but also stunted the careers of many loyal foreign policy wonks
who had spurned Clinton in the primaries and signed up with the Obama campaign
instead.
Mr. Fullilove, you must understand why he put her where he did. Mitchell, Ross, and Holbrooke run the show. Samantha Powers and Rice handle the rest. Hillary is left as the token spokesperson for State, without real power, popping up and down as Kennedy used Johnson - an emissary to keep him away and out of the country. Hillary is not a political threat to him while she holds the job she does. That is very nearly the entire reason for her having the job she holds.
Obama's pre-presidential writings and speeches on foreign policy were mainly
free of ideological content, and some of his statements as president reveal a
professorial pragmatism. In Europe, Obama was asked whether he believed in
American exceptionalism. "I believe in American exceptionalism, just as I
suspect that the Brits believe in British exceptionalism and the Greeks believe
in Greek exceptionalism." Does Obama not realise that America is unique, a
shining city on a hill which cannot possibly be compared with other countries?
Come on, his statements, writing in law school, social involvements - all show his leanings. He has been shaped by Marxian theory in law, history, cultural interpretations ... across the board he shows a very Marxian analysis and purpose to his driven agenda. he does not believe in American exceptionalism any more than nearly every liberal academic in the country - America is not exceptional, we are all the same, we are equal, they are good, we are good, their is not judgment as to which is better for we cannot judge. Marxian and also very academic.
He recorded a video message to the Iranian people commemorating the Persian new year, pressed "reset" on relations with Russia, and made nice with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, Evo Morales of Bolivia and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua. Obama is no pacifist, as Somali pirates have learned, but diplomacy is on the rise.
'Reset' with the Russians. That is why they have mocked him and ignored US overtures. They play with the US, but understand the leadership is weak, and they will use that weakness to their political gain in several countries in Eastern Europe coming very soon.
Message to the Iranian people - that really went over well ... with NO ONE. Amindinejad doesn't like Obama and the people never heard it nor did those who did, care.
Hugs to Chavez. Hugs to Ortega and Morales. And from all this hugging and useless banter Mr. Fullilove determines Obama is not a pacifist? Nothing presented would suggest anything but. The Somali pirates are an entirely different story. What happened was ... Obama wanted negotiation (which was ongoing), Obama wanted a trade ($ for the Captain) - the Navy had the three SEAL snipers in place simply as a matter of protocol. While everyone was waiting, Obama was told they could do it 100% without failure, and Obama recognizing that 100% was the best he could get, agreed. His first choice was negotiation, but the pirates were using negotiation to paddle their way to safety.
All this makes for an impressive combination. Most of it is good news for
Australia, although we will have to be smarter and work harder to get access to
Washington's inner councils. Obama doesn't know Australia well, and he's not
really an alliance man anyway, and competition for the president's attention is
fiercer. Like Obama, Kevin Rudd is a pragmatic policy wonk from the
centre-left.
This is interesting. Obama is not an alliance man! But Obama told the world THAT IS EXACTLY what he would do when he was elected. So, is he or not. if not, then this promise was also a lie.
Bush's approach of punishing adversaries by not speaking to them did not
work. It makes sense to reach out to competitors and to try to identify mutual
interests. But not all interests are mutual or even reconcilable.
This is a statement offered with no facts. Which adversaries? N Korea? Iran? We NEVER stopped speaking to Iran. Lies told and repeated often enough everyone believes them and repeats them. The US continued to hold low level meetings with Iran all through the Bush terms. The US was constantly in meetings with North Korea. Nearly six years of meetings. Just because you never paid attention to the news and or didn't look for details on the meetings does not mean they did not occur.
International relations is an unsentimental business; you must deploy leverage
and pressure as well as sweet reason.
And under Bush we exerted the carrot - oil and food to North Korea and the pressure. It worked until the Democrats took control of Congress and if you review the history, it was in late 2006 when North Korea again went off the deep end. Bush, embattled and attacked daily, Democrats taking control - North Korea took advantage, and what better party to have in power when you do it - the Democrats.
It is good to be loved, said Machiavelli, but more important to be feared.
True. But liberals are about feelings and to be loved for liberals and Democrats is a sign that everyone respects you and being feared is a bad thing, like when you went to church and were told to be afraid of God ... a bad thing ...
Come to think of it, I don't much agree with very much Mr. Fullilove argues, except the belief Machiavelli held about love and fear / respect.
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