Some people get a small thrill when they are correct about someone in their judgment, or about something that tends to prove itself accurate later, while other people tended to ignore the events or people. Whether it is about that neighbor who is lifting large sacks out of his garage late at night and dumping them in his trunk for late night drive-aways, or on more macro issues like Iran, Israel, the Palestinians, or Egypt. One writer I believe is amazing good – Caroline Glick. Her articles on Israel are brilliant and where analysis comes in, it is either very accurate or as layers are peeled away through the actions of Iran, Hezbollah, or Israel, they are seen to be accurate at a later time.
I do not see the same, as yet (and it is almost mid-way through) in regard to Egypt. Despots and the sort, hold power through fear. You increase the pressure enough that everyone runs and hides and those who remain standing are collected and disposed of (which increases the fear). It works quite well in North Korea. Yet North Korea is not the norm for the average despotic regime. The ‘norm’ is much less time – the USSR lasted relatively few years longer than N Korea – whether the Philippines, China, Haiti, Cuba, Vietnam, Indonesia, Iraq, Iran, Tunisia, and now in Egypt. The African regimes have tended to develop slightly different and for varied reasons.
In the Philippines, the people deposed their despot. In China and Vietnam, the governments morphed into something not quite communist and not capitalist, not closed but certainly not open … and they have survived and done quite well. In other countries, their despot was not as prescient – Iraq, Tunisia, Iran, and now in Egypt (despite Biden saying otherwise, Mubarak is – after 30 years, he is no longer the representative of the Egyptian people, he is a dictator). We saw democracy bloom in the Philippines. In Cuba, Castro has made a huge U turn, one of the longest and slowest – to where he now admits that communism as an economic system does not work.
These despots or despotic regimes either must morph into a hybrid despotic-but-smile sometimes-regime, or ultimately they are swept into the dustbin of history. The longest lasting King that we are aware of in history – ancient history – is Sargon, King of the Akkadians. He ruled for 55 years and is the model for despotic regimes. To remain King more than 4000 years ago, one did not do so by birth and blood, but rather by sword. And 4000 years ago, everyone had a sword – the slave could find a knife, the handmaiden, the door guard … so King Sargon had to have been very good at analyzing people in mere seconds – he had to stab his adjutant before the adjutant stabbed him. He also employed an intelligence service and army to collect anyone who posed a threat to his regime. Much like Mubarak.
Personally, I find Mubarak in Egypt and Hussein in Jordan to be relics of a time long past. They are not alone – Kim should have gone long ago and Castro is 25 years past his ‘best used by’ date. Gabon just saw the end of a 40+ year reign by Omar Bongo – he was probably 30 years past his ‘best used by date’. Muammar al-Gaddafi is another – he took power in 1969 – way past his date due. Cameroon is another country where they need to clean out the closet and throw out the old bones that have been sitting in there for over 30 years. Still, another country led by a man who woke up every morning knowing he was not unemployed – Yemen. Ali Saleh has been sitting on that piece of very valuable land (strategically) for more than 30 years. In fact, with the exception of Castro and Kim, there are 4 or 5 men who don’t know the meaning of retirement, and all of them ‘lead’ a country on the continent of Africa (which is an entirely different issue).
Still, we see the slow unfolding of the end of Mubarak, and the Left are cheering the coming Democracy. They are also making snide comments about Republicans and Conservatives – why aren’t they as happy with events in Egypt as they were to rush to war in Iraq to bring regime change. Simple people live with simple thoughts and the Left are by and large, simple-minded (in the 1930’s sort of understanding of that word!!!).
None of us want a dictator or tyrant ruling us or anyone, but if it is between a communist North Korea and an authoritarian tyrant, I choose the tyrant. If it is between a Mubarak (who I have no special feelings for and wouldn’t have minded if he had been among those killed along side Sadat in 1981, but we deal with the cards we are played, we don’t get to change decks) and a fascist Islamist state – I choose Mubarak. Liberals would interject – but why is it either or, why can’t it be various other options, like democracy. Simple lives in a simple world. In a peaceful and stable world, it would be – bad and good, evil and saintly … but we don’t live in that world and neither do the bad guys who want to kill us. They live in our world. Unlike the Nightmare series of movies, Freddie only lived in the dream world. His victims were safe in the real world, but when they fell into that state between sleep and wakefulness, they were pulled into the nightmares and Freddy ruled. Our Freddy is real and he is not locked in the dream state where liberals live, but he is all over the place – Gabon, Congo, Uganda, Rwanda, Nigeria, Sudan, Somalia, Yemen, Iran … and they do not go peacefully into the night.
Mubarak’s police – that precarious line in civilian control, when the police refuse to follow the laws and the leaders who issue those laws, civil society is no longer civil society, it is in a nether region, like that world where Freddy’s victims find themselves prior to being pulled into the nightmare – a nether region where no one is in control, and Mubarak sent in the army. The end was near, all that was required was a few finishing touches.
If the army goes in, it is no longer, under any pretense, a civilian government as Egypt has pretended they have for 30+ years. You have no idea what percentage of police have been corrupted or lost, so you must take complete control – now you have all the police unemployed and ready for service to whomever pays the most (whether actual or anticipated). At that point you must rely upon your military to wrest control from whomever it is you want control taken away from, or returned to (in this case returned to Mubarak).
So Mubarak sent the army in, the police were taking off their uniforms and siding with the people. Then we heard the army gave up areas it had been fighting to hold on to all day, and the opposition took control, while the army pulled back. The coffin has been built and set out on the table, all we need is the deceased.
It is not a choice between Mubarak and free elections and a happy El Baradei … that man, Mohammad ElBaradei is why Israel (returning to Caroline Glick) is where it is – he single handedly, well with the help of an inept UN, gave Iran the time it needed for the nuclear program. Whether it is called the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaida, or some other named group – the Islamists are waiting to step in, seize control (and they will) and among other things, rescind any treaty with Israel, and possess one of the most advanced military weapons systems in the world. A sobering thought – for all of us.
But liberals are quite pleased, if only to rub it in the faces of conservatives – why not support this movement, it is people overthrowing an unjust tyrant – like Iraq. They live in such a simple world. If this were the 19th century and they lived on the Vanatu islands, fine – it wouldn’t matter how delusional they were, but we live in a world where we may not always enjoy the people we must sleep with, but to (in our collective opinion) save our culture, children, freedom – we sleep with some unsavory characters, and Mubarak was one of them.
The sarcophagus now has its occupant, the lid has been lowered. All that is left to do is seal it and put it into place. We will all find out shortly if Mubarak even survives this, or cares, given his health issues. Obama – he has been betting on the opposition, aiding and assisting El Baradei. Makes perfect sense – Islamists on Israel’s southern border, and enemies of the West controlling the Suez Canal. Obama is happy though.
There are many variables and any one of them could change the outcome - the military could take control and ruthlessly erase the opposition leadership ... or the Islamists could take power and a monumental shift would occur in our war against Islamic extremism.
Yet there will be calls by the erudite masses, who will remind us that none of what happens is our business, so stay out of it. Again, a world of fancy and pixie dust. I concur - in this fantasy world (of which I spent some time a few days ago - it is called Disneyland) we have no business even talking to other countries unless they call us or we would like to trade our widgets for their spokes. This is not that world and while the erudite would like us to stay out - the Islamists will not and they will take control while we stand back and shrug our shoulders - none of our responsibility, none of our business. Until we have to get involved and many thousands die. The erudite will remind us that over 150,000 died in Algeria when the 'West' refused to accept the Islamist win in 1990-1991. Yes, I suppose the US and the 'West' refusing to accept the result made the Islamists kill their opponents and vice versa - we forced them to kill. Maybe we even gave them the weapons to kill each other.
Disneyland and Disneyworld should be the only places we find fantasyland - not in the White House or the media.
http://www.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/01/28/135395.html
http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/01/28/clashes-erupt-in-cairo-elbaradei-told-to-stay-put-cnn-camera-confiscated/?hpt=T1&iref=BN1
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703956604576109323492986438.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
egypt
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